Model Documentation - IFs

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Alert-warning.png Note: The documentation of IFs is 'in preparation' and is not yet 'published'!
Model Documentation - IFs
Corresponding documentation
Model information
Institution Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver (Pardee Center)
Concept International Futures (IFs) is a country level (186 countries), long term integrated assessment system, hard-linking demographic, economic, education, health, governance, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, water, climate and other models; it is fully embedded in an interactive interface and is open source with web-based and downloadable versions.
Solution method Dynamic recursive with annual time steps through 2100.
Anticipation Myopic

International Futures (IFs) is a long-term integrated assessment model or system which is a collection of several hard–linked, directly interconnected models (sometimes referred to as modules). It is dynamic recursive with annual time steps to 2100. It represents 186 countries connected through a variety of flows, facilitates aggregation of them to global regions, and allows subdivision of them into more local socio-political units. The IFs system is available for use by others both on-line and in a downloadable version, and it is open source. Major models in IFs (see Figure below) include

  • a multistate population model (which represents 22 age sex cohorts to age 100+ and differentiates their educational attainment and cause-specific mortality patterns).
  • a multisector general equilibrium economic model (which uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time); it provides labor, investment, and consumption information to partial equilibrium energy and agriculture models.
  • an education model that tracks grade-by-grade student progression and aging of adults with variable attainment levels.
  • a health model that represents age-sex specific mortality and morbidly by 15 causes of death.
  • socio-political representations that include governance capacity and finance, wrapping the economic model in a broader social accounting matrix.
  • an energy model (which portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable). Physical values from the partial equilibrium model are converted to currency values to replace those in the general equilibrium economic model.
  • an agricultural model (which is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes); the model represents crop, gazing, forest, developed and other land. As with energy, physical values converted to monetary values override those in the general equilibrium model.
  • an infrastructure model that projects paved roads, access to safe water and sanitation, electricity access, and access to various forms of information and communications technology,
  • an environmental model, which allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, area of forested land, water supply-demand, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and changes in temperature and precipitation.
  • an implicit technology model, which allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in health, agriculture, energy, and the broader economy.

The basic models of the IFs system