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== Transport ==
Energy end-use demand is broken down into the following sectors: Transport, Residential and Commercial, Industry and Other (Agriculture). Each sector is composed of a number of energy service demands that map to specific components of that sector, e.g. residential hot water. The temporal trajectory of these energy service demands are linked to underlying demand drivers such as GDP or population, as will be detailed later (see [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/Energy_demand_-_TIAM-UCL Energy demand - TIAM-UCL]).
 
=== Energy services demand ===
 
The transportation sector is characterized by 14 energy-services plus one non-energy use demand segment (Table 3.3.1). Six of the energy-services are considered as generic demands: international and domestic aviation, freight and passenger rail transportation, domestic and international navigation (TWD, TWI). All other energy-services are for road transport. Demand for road transport energy-services is expressed in b-vkm and others are in PJ.  The model projects energy-services demands for each region.
 
'''Table 3.3.1: Energy-service demands in transport sector'''<br />                 
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|'''Energy-service sectors'''<br />
|-
|Domestic Aviation
|-
|International Aviation
|-
|Road Bus Demand
|-
|Road Commercial Trucks Demand
|-
|Road Three Wheels Demand
|-
|Road Heavy Trucks Demand
|-
|Road Light Vehicle Demand
|-
|Road Medium Trucks Demand
|-
|Road Auto Demand
|-
|Road Two Wheels Demand
|-
|Rail-Freight
|-
|Rail-Passengers
|-
|Domestic Internal Navigation
|-
|International Navigation
|}
 
Table 3.3.2 presents the list of transport fuels available to meet the base-year energy-service demand in each transport subsector. Diesel and gasoline are considered as the conventional technologies and the other are alternative fuels which are introduced later. Jet fuel and electricity are available to meet aviation demand.
 
'''Table 3.3.2: transport fuels'''
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|'''Fuel'''
|-
|diesel
|-
|electricity
|-
|ethanol
|-
|gasoline
|-
|LPG
|-
|methanol
|-
|natural gas
|}
 
No new investments are allowed for existing technologies. For each end-use, a number of existing technologies are in competition to satisfy the energy-services demand for future years. Efficiency and cost of these technologies improve over the period with vintages. These technologies progressively replace the existing ones and they are characterized by the same type of parameters such as efficiency, and investment cost. There are many new technologies available for the road transport sector whereas technological detail is very limited in rail, shipping and aviation modes. Investment and O&amp;M costs shown are US dollar reference prices. They are multiplied by regionally specific factors for each region. Technology and regional specific hurdle rate, which are used to annualise the investment cost, are also applied.
== Residential and commercial sectors ==
=== Commercial Sector ===
 
Commercial sector base-year final energy consumption is calibrated in the residential sector Base-Year template, which has separate sheets for commercial sector IEA data, sector fuel data, end-use technology data and emissions data. There are separate sheets available for technology data for each energy-service demand.
 
===== Energy services demand =====
 
The commercial sector includes eight energy service demands for each region as presented in Table 3.4.1. Some segments of the commercial sector energy-services are identified using more than one code, which means that the demand can be disaggregated in four or less sub-regions.When no sub-regions have been defined, the codes for sub-region 1 are used by default. Currently, USA and CAN have four and three geographic regions, respectively, while AFR, CHI, IND, MEA and MEX each have two ?sub-regions?, corresponding to rural and urban areas. The energy-service demands for the future period (2005-2100) are projected using appropriate drivers and elasticity.
 
'''Table 3.4.1: Energy-services in commercial sector'''
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|''' Energy-service'''
|-
|Commercial Cooling
|-
|Commercial Cooking
|-
|Commercial Space Heat
|-
|Commercial Hot Water
|-
|Commercial Lighting
|-
|Commercial Office Equipment
|-
|Commercial Refrigeration
|}
 
=== Sector fuels ===
 
Table 3.4.2 contains details of existing fuel technologies (each also has a new fuel technology vintage) for the commercial sector. Commercial sector emissions factor to capture commercial sector emissions are also included in the Base-Year template.
 
'''Table 3.4.2: commercial sector fuel technologies-existing'''
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|''' Technology Description'''
|-
|Fuel Tech - Natural Gas Mix (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Diesel (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Heavy Fuel Oil (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Kerosene (COM)<br />
|-
|Fuel Tech - Coal (COM) - Existing
|-
|Fuel Tech - Liquefied Petroleum Gases (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Biofuels (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Geothermal (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Solar (COM)<br />
|-
|Fuel Tech - Electricity (COM)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Heat (COM)
|}
 
=== Technologies ===
 
There are a number of existing technologies modelled for each energy service demand in the Base-Year template for each region and sub-region. For each energy service demand, a number of technologies are in competition to satisfy the demand. They are characterized by an efficiency, an annual utilization factor, a lifetime, operation costs, and six seasonal share coefficients (summer-day, summer-night, intermediary-day, intermediary-night, winter-day, winter-night). No future investment is allowed in the existing technologies. A list of new technologies are modelled. These technologies  are available after the first period (base-year) and progressively replace the existing ones as they reach the end of their technology life assumptions. In addition to parameters specified for existing technologies, new technology descriptions include information such as technology cost. The parameters such as cost, efficiency, etc., can improve over the years with vintages. Regional specific hurdle rates, which is used to annualised the investment cost, are used for commercial end-use technologies<br />
 
=== Residential Sector ===
 
Base-year residential sector final energy consumption calibration is modelled in the Base-Year template for residential, commercial and agriculture sectors. The template has IEA residential sector final consumption data for the base-year 2005. It also includes details for residential sector fuels and all existing technologies in residential sector. The template also captures residential sector emissions. All new technologies that are available after the first year (base-year) are modelled seperately. Selected energy-services in residential sector are also has demand data at sub region level for selected regions in order to have different growth rate at sun-region level for those energy-services.
 
=== Energy service demands ===
 
The residential sector includes 11 energy-services as presented in Table 3-4-3. All energy-service demands are in PJ. In the residential sector, some segments are identified using more than one code, which means that the demand can be disaggregated in four or less sub-regions. Currently, USA and CAN have four and three geographic regions, respectively, while AFR, CHI, IND, MEA and MEX each have two ?sub-regions?, corresponding to rural and urban areas. When no sub-regions have been defined, the codes for sub-region 1 are used by default. Energy service demands are projected to 2100 using general economic and demographic drivers (population, GDP and GDP per capita). To develop projections of future energy-service demands, estimates of drivers are used in conjunction with user assumptions on the topic of service demand sensitivity to these drivers (see Section on demand projections and drivers).  Growth rates for residential lighting are relatively high in selected sub-regions in the developing world.  Thisis because of very low level of electrification at present (base-year) in these sub-regions.
 
'''Table 3.4.3: Residential sector energy-services'''
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|'''Energy-Service'''
|-
|Residential Cooling
|-
|Residential Clothes Drying
|-
|Residential Clothes Washing
|-
|Residential Dishwashing
|-
|Residential Other Electric
|-
|Residential Space Heat
|-
|Residential Hot Water
|-
|Residential Cooking - Region 1
|-
|Residential Lighting - Region 1
|-
|Residential Refrigeration
|-
|Residential Others
|}
 
The same fuels (both Existing and New) are used in both the Residential and Commercial sectors.
 
=== Technologies ===
 
Residential sector existing end-use technologies are modelled in the Base-Year templates. No investment can be made in existing technologies. These new technologies progressively replace the existing ones as they reach the end of their technology life assumptions. For each end-use energy-service, a number of existing technologies are in competition to satisfy the demand. They are characterized by an efficiency, an annual utilization factor, a lifetime, operation costs, and six seasonal share coefficients (summer-day, summer-night, intermediary-day, intermediary-night, winter-day, winter-night). The sum product of the final energy consumption and the efficiency of technologies give the base-year demand value. Region specific hurdle rates, which are used to annualise investment cost of the residential end-use technologies, has been applied to residential sector technologies.
 
== Industrial sector ==
=== Energy-service demands ===
 
The industrial sector is characterized by 6 energy-services, each representing either the physical output of the industry or the total energy requirement ('''Table 3.5.1)'''. There are also one demand for ?Other non-specified energy consumption (ONO)?, one for ?Industrial and Other non-energy uses (NEO)? and one for ?Very Other industries (I00)?, which are considered as a generic demands. The last one (I00) has been added for minor calibration purposes and is generally not used. There are different technologies and fuels modelled for supplying steam, process heat, machine drives and electro-chemical process for each energy-service demand in the Base-year templates.
 
'''Table 3.5.1: Industry sector energy-services'''
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|'''Energy-service sectors'''
|-
|Other Industrial consumption
|-
|Chemicals
|-
|Iron and Steel
|-
|Pulp and Paper
|-
|Non-ferrous metals
|-
|Non Metals
|-
|Other Industries
|-
|Industrial and Other Non Energy Uses
|-
|Other non-specified consumption
|}
 
Energy service demands are projected to 2100 using general economic and demographic drivers (population, GDP, GDP per capita and sectoral output). . To develop projections of future energy service demands, estimates of drivers are used in conjunction with user assumptions on the topic of service demand sensitivity to these drivers. Projected industry sector energy-service demands at a global level are presented in '''Figure 3.5.1'''. Similar tables have been generated for each region. Industry sector has relatively high growth in China as compared to other regions.
 
[[Image:TIAM-UCLIMPORT/attachments/34379451/35815693.png|35815693.png]]
 
'''Figure 3.5.1: projected industry sector energy-service demands at global level'''
 
There are hundreds of technologies modelled in the industry sector to meet the energy-service demands. For each energy-services of each industry, a number of existing technologies are in competition to satisfy energy-service demand. They are characterized by an efficiency, an annual utilization factor, a lifetime, operation costs, and six seasonal share coefficients (summer-day, summer-night, intermediary day, intermediary-night, winter-day, winter-night). The technologies included in the Base-Year template are the existing technologies to meet the base-year demand and the residual capacities can be used till end of their life period. No new investments are allowed in the existing technologies in any sector. . These technologies progressively replace the existing ones and they are characterized by the same type of parameters such as efficiency, and investment cost. Regional specific hurdle rates are applies to industry sector new technologies as shown in '''Figure 3.5.2'''. It varies from 10% (developed countries) to 20% (least developed countries).
 
[[Image:TIAM-UCLIMPORT/attachments/34379451/35815694.png|35815694.png]]
'''Figure 3.5.2: Regional specific hurdle rate for industry sector technologies'''
 
== Agriculture ==
 
=== Energy services demand ===
 
Agriculture sector energy-service demand (single segment) is projected using the driver ?agricultural sector output? for each region. '''Figure 3.6.1''' presents the projected energy-service demand by region. Note that there are no new technologies associated with the generic demand (AGR: Agriculture). In this sector, it is assumed that increases in agricultural output result in proportionate increases in fuel input.
 
[[Image:TIAM-UCLIMPORT/attachments/34379452/35815695.png|35815695.png]]
 
'''Figure 3.6.1: Agriculture energy-service demand projection by region'''
 
=== Sector fuels ===
 
Sectoral fuel technologies are modelled in the sheet AGR_Fuels in the residential Base-Year template as shown in '''Table 3.6.1.''' The fuels are aggregated into 12 categories consumed in the agriculture sector. Aggregation ratios are based on data provided by the IEA database. The technologies created to produce aggregated fuels (Fuel Tech) are named uniformly using the name of the aggregated fuels as specified in the column Commodity OUT plus three zero (000 for existing technology in the base-year). Their description changes according to the fuel (e.g. Fuel Tech - Coal (AGR) or Fuel Tech - Natural Gas (AGR). The fractional shares of the disaggregated fuels (Commodity IN) used to produce an aggregated fuel (Commodity OUT) are calculated from their consumption over the total for this category, as given in the IEA database.
 
'''Table 3.6.1: Agriculture sector fuel technologies-existing'''
 
{| class = "wikitable"
|width="100%"|'''Technology Description'''
|-
|Fuel Tech - Natural Gas Mix (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Natural Gas (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Diesel (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Gasoline (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Heavy Fuel Oil (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Kerosene (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Coal (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Liquified Petroleum Gases (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Biofuels (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Geothermal (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Solar (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Electricity (AGR)
|-
|Fuel Tech - Heat (AGR)
|}
 
=== Base-year calibration ===
 
IEA energy balance provides agriculture energy consumption by fuels. Since agriculture sector is defined with a single energy-service, there is no need for that split of fuel consumptions into different sub-sector as we did for other end-use sector. Fuels in the IEA energy balance has been aggregated into 13 fuels (commodity) as defined in the sector fuel table '''(Table 3.6.1)'''. Base-year global agriculture final energy consumption is 7,283 PJ, mix of which is presented in '''Figure 3.6.2''' at a global level.
 
[[Image:TIAM-UCLIMPORT/attachments/34379452/35815696.png|35815696.png]]
 
'''Figure 3.6.2: Base-year agriculture energy consumption mix by fuel'''

Latest revision as of 17:04, 12 December 2016

Model Documentation - TIAM-UCL

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution University College London (UCL), UK, https://www.ucl.ac.uk.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method Linear optimisation
Anticipation Perfect Foresight

(Stochastic and myopic runs are also possible)

Energy end-use demand is broken down into the following sectors: Transport, Residential and Commercial, Industry and Other (Agriculture). Each sector is composed of a number of energy service demands that map to specific components of that sector, e.g. residential hot water. The temporal trajectory of these energy service demands are linked to underlying demand drivers such as GDP or population, as will be detailed later (see Energy demand - TIAM-UCL).

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