Macro-economy - POLES

Model Documentation - POLES
Model scope and methods - POLES Model concept, solver and details - POLES Temporal dimension - POLES Spatial dimension - POLES Policy - POLES Socio-economic drivers - POLES Population - POLES Economic activity - POLES Macro-economy - POLES Production system and representation of economic sectors - POLES Energy - POLES Energy resource endowments - POLES Fossil energy resources - POLES Uranium and other fissile resources - POLES Bioenergy - POLES Non-biomass renewables - POLES Energy conversion - POLES Electricity - POLES Heat - POLES Gaseous fuels - POLES Liquid fuels - POLES Solid fuels - POLES Grid, pipelines and other infrastructure - POLES Energy end-use - POLES Transport - POLES Residential and commercial sectors - POLES Industrial sector - POLES Other end-use - POLES Energy demand - POLES Technological change in energy - POLES Land-use - POLES Emissions - POLES Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options - POLES Climate - POLES Non-climate sustainability dimension - POLES Appendices - POLES Data - POLES References - POLES
Corresponding documentation
AIM-Hub BLUES C3IAM COFFEE-TEA DNE21+ GCAM GEM-E3 GRACE IFs IMACLIM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM POLES REMIND-MAgPIE TIAM-UCL WITCH
Previous versions
Archive of POLES version ADVANCE
Model information
Model link	http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/poles-jrc-model-documentation-0
Institution	JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept	Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method	SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation	Myopic

In POLES key macro-economic assumptions are exogenous: population and growth if GDP per capita. Information comes from external sources: population usually from the UN Population Prospects (latest: the 2012 revision), GDP information from international sources (IMF, MIT, CEPII, national and regional estimates, ..). The consistency between population and income assumptions is checked.

An on-going work will allow connecting POLES to the macro-econometric model MAGE (CEPII) through the use of an "energy factor" in the MAGE production function, allowing to use a more dynamic relation between GDP and energy.

The key marco-economic assumptions are then derived into sectoral economic activity variables:

• sectoral value added depend on the level of development of the country / region, given by the GDP per capita;

36405548.png Figure 1. Share of value-added as a function of GDP per capita

• industrial physical production depends on demand, which is itself depending on the level of development;
• mobility (for passengers and for goods) depends on the cost of transport compared to income, and is declined in equipment rates, degree of utilisation of this equipment, etc.. ;
• building surfaces depend on households size (cohabitation) and surface per dwelling, both depending on personal income.

All variables also depend on historical data, that capture local specificities.