PRIMES

The reference card is a clearly defined description of model features. The numerous options have been organized into a limited amount of default and model specific (non default) options. In addition some features are described by a short clarifying text.

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edit About

About

Name and version

PRIMES PRIMES 2022

Model link

https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools/primes/

Institution

E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/.

Documentation

PRIMES documentation is limited and consists of a reference card

Process state

in preparation

edit Model scope and methods

Model scope and methods

Model type

• Integrated assessment model
• Energy system model
• CGE
• CBA-integrated assessment model

Geographical scope

• Global
• Regional

Objective

PRIMES provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, prices and investment to the future, covering the entire energy system including emissions for each individual European country and for Europe-wide trade of energy commodities. PRIMES model design is suitable for medium- and long-term energy system projections and system restructuring up to 2070, both in demand and supply. The model can support an impact assessment of specific energy and environment policies and measures, applied at the Member State or EU level, including price signals, such as taxation, subsidies, ETS, technology-promoting policies, RES-supporting policies, efficiency-promoting policies, environmental policies and technology standards. PRIMES is sufficiently detailed to represent concrete policy measures in various sectors, including market design options for the EU internal electricity and gas markets. Policy analysis draws on comparing the results of scenarios against a reference projection

Solution concept

• Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
• Partial equilibrium (fixed demand)
• General equilibrium (closed economy)
• The PRIMES model comprises several sub-models (modules), each one representing the behaviour of a specific (or representative) agent, a demander and/or a supplier of energy. The sub-models link with each other through a model integration algorithm, which determines equilibrium prices in multiple markets and equilibrium volumes meets balancing and overall (e.g. emission) constraints.

Solution horizon

• Recursive dynamic (myopic)
• Intertemporal optimization (foresight)

Solution method

• Simulation
• Optimization
• Mathematically PRIMES solves an EPEC problem (equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints) which allows prices to be explicitly determined.

Anticipation

The PRIMES model is fully dynamic and has options regarding future anticipation by agents in decision-making. Usually, PRIMES assumes perfect foresight over a short time horizon for demand sectors and perfect foresight over a long time horizon for supply sectors. The sub-models solve over the entire projection period in each cycle of interaction between demand and supply and so market equilibrium is dynamic and not static. Other options are available allowing the model user to specify shorter time horizons for foresight.

Temporal dimension

Base year:2015, time steps:5 year, horizon: 2015 to 2070

Spatial dimension

Number of regions:28

1. EU27, UK. Primes has also used for providing projections for the Energy Community Contracting Parties, Turkey, Iceland, Switzerland.

Time discounting type

• Discount rate exogenous
• Discount rate endogenous

Policies

• Emission tax
• Emission pricing
• Cap and trade
• Fuel taxes
• Fuel subsidies
• Feed-in-tariff
• Portfolio standard
• Capacity targets
• Emission standards
• Energy efficiency standards
• Agricultural producer subsidies
• Agricultural consumer subsidies
• Land protection
• Pricing carbon stocks
• Eco-design standars, Best Available Technology regulations, Energy Performance standards
• Emission standards or efficiency standards or CO2 standards on vehicles and other transport means,
• Phase-out regarulations, Large Combustion Plant Directive
• Additionality rules for the production of renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels (e-fuels)

edit Socio-economic info

Socio-economic drivers

Population

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Population age structure

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Education level

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Urbanization rate

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

GDP

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Income distribution

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Employment rate

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Labor productivity

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Total factor productivity

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Autonomous energy efficiency improvements

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

edit Macro-economic info

Macro-economy

Economic sector

Industry

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Energy

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Transportation

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Residential and commercial

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Agriculture

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Forestry

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Macro-economy

Trade

• Coal
• Oil
• Gas
• Uranium
• Electricity
• Bioenergy crops
• Food crops
• Capital
• Emissions permits
• Non-energy goods

Cost measures

• GDP loss
• Welfare loss
• Consumption loss
• Area under MAC
• Energy system cost mark-up

Categorization by group

• Income
• Urban - rural
• Technology adoption
• Age
• Gender
• Education level
• Household size

Institutional and political factors

• Early retirement of capital allowed
• Interest rates differentiated by country/region
• Regional risk factors included
• Technology costs differentiated by country/region
• Technological change differentiated by country/region
• Behavioural change differentiated by country/region
• Constraints on cross country financial transfers

Resource use

Coal

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Conventional Oil

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Unconventional Oil

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Conventional Gas

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Unconventional Gas

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Uranium

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Bioenergy

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Water

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Raw Materials

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Land

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Technological change

Energy conversion technologies

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Energy End-use

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Material Use

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Agriculture (tc)

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

edit Energy

Energy

Energy technology substitution

Energy technology choice

• No discrete technology choices
• Logit choice model
• Production function
• Linear choice (lowest cost)
• Lowest cost with adjustment penalties

Energy technology substitutability

• Mostly high substitutability
• Mostly low substitutability
• Mixed high and low substitutability

Energy technology deployment

• Expansion and decline constraints
• System integration constraints

Energy

Electricity technologies

• Coal w/o CCS
• Coal w/ CCS
• Gas w/o CCS
• Gas w/ CCS
• Oil w/o CCS
• Oil w/ CCS
• Bioenergy w/o CCS
• Bioenergy w/ CCS
• Geothermal power
• Nuclear power
• Solar power
• Solar power-central PV
• Solar power-distributed PV
• Solar power-CSP
• Wind power
• Wind power-onshore
• Wind power-offshore
• Hydroelectric power
• Ocean power

Hydrogen production

• Coal to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Coal to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Natural gas to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Natural gas to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Oil to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Oil to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Biomass to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Biomass to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Nuclear thermochemical hydrogen
• Solar thermochemical hydrogen
• Electrolysis

Refined liquids

• Coal to liquids w/o CCS
• Coal to liquids w/ CCS
• Gas to liquids w/o CCS
• Gas to liquids w/ CCS
• Bioliquids w/o CCS
• Bioliquids w/ CCS
• Oil refining

Refined gases

• Coal to gas w/o CCS
• Coal to gas w/ CCS
• Oil to gas w/o CCS
• Oil to gas w/ CCS
• Biomass to gas w/o CCS
• Biomass to gas w/ CCS

Heat generation

• Coal heat
• Natural gas heat
• Oil heat
• Biomass heat
• Geothermal heat
• Solarthermal heat
• CHP (coupled heat and power)

Grid Infra Structure

Electricity

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Gas

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Heat

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

CO2

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Hydrogen

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Energy end-use technologies

Passenger transportation

• Passenger trains
• Buses
• Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs)
• Electric LDVs
• Hydrogen LDVs
• Hybrid LDVs
• Gasoline LDVs
• Diesel LDVs
• Passenger aircrafts
• Private road passenger (cars, powered 2 wheelers), public road passenger (buses and coaches), road freight (HDVs, LDVs), passenger rail (slow and high-speed trains, metro), freight rail, passenger aviation (split into distance classes), freight and passenger inland navigation and short sea shipping, bunkers. Numerous classes of vehicles and transport means with tracking of technology vintages.

Freight transportation

• Freight trains
• Heavy duty vehicles
• Freight aircrafts
• Freight ships

Industry

• Steel production
• Aluminium production
• Cement production
• Petrochemical production
• Paper production
• Plastics production
• Pulp production

Residential and commercial

• Space heating
• Space cooling
• Cooking
• Refrigeration
• Washing
• Lighting

edit Land-use

Land-use

Land cover

• Cropland
• Cropland irrigated
• Cropland food crops
• Cropland feed crops
• Cropland energy crops
• Forest
• Managed forest
• Natural forest
• Pasture
• Shrubland
• Built-up area

Agriculture and forestry demands

• Agriculture food
• Agriculture food crops
• Agriculture food livestock
• Agriculture feed
• Agriculture feed crops
• Agriculture feed livestock
• Agriculture non-food
• Agriculture non-food crops
• Agriculture non-food livestock
• Agriculture bioenergy
• Agriculture residues
• Forest industrial roundwood
• Forest fuelwood
• Forest residues

Agricultural commodities

• Wheat
• Rice
• Other coarse grains
• Oilseeds
• Sugar crops
• Ruminant meat
• Non-ruminant meat and eggs
• Dairy products

edit Emissions, climate and impacts

Emission, climate and impacts

Greenhouse gases

• CO2 fossil fuels
• CO2 cement
• CO2 land use
• CH4 energy
• CH4 land use
• CH4 other
• N2O energy
• N2O land use
• N2O other
• CFCs
• HFCs
• SF6
• PFCs

Pollutants

• CO energy
• CO land use
• CO other
• NOx energy
• NOx land use
• NOx other
• VOC energy
• VOC land use
• VOC other
• SO2 energy
• SO2 land use
• SO2 other
• BC energy
• BC land use
• BC other
• OC energy
• OC land use
• OC other
• NH3 energy
• NH3 land use
• NH3 other

Climate indicators

• Concentration: CO2
• Concentration: CH4
• Concentration: N2O
• Concentration: Kyoto gases
• Radiative forcing: CO2
• Radiative forcing: CH4
• Radiative forcing: N2O
• Radiative forcing: F-gases
• Radiative forcing: Kyoto gases
• Radiative forcing: aerosols
• Radiative forcing: land albedo
• Radiative forcing: AN3A
• Radiative forcing: total
• Temperature change
• Sea level rise
• Ocean acidification

Carbon dioxide removal

• Bioenergy with CCS
• Reforestation
• Afforestation
• Soil carbon enhancement
• Direct air capture
• Enhanced weathering

Climate change impacts

• Agriculture
• Energy supply
• Energy demand
• Economic output
• Built capital
• Inequality

Co-Linkages

• Energy security: Fossil fuel imports & exports (region)
• Energy access: Household energy consumption
• Air pollution & health: Source-based aerosol emissions
• Air pollution & health: Health impacts of air Pollution
• Food access
• Water availability
• Biodiversity