Policy - IFs
Corresponding documentation | |
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Previous versions | |
Model information | |
Model link | |
Institution | Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver (Pardee Center), Colorado, USA, https://pardee.du.edu/. |
Solution concept | |
Solution method | Dynamic recursive with annual time steps through 2100. |
Anticipation | Myopic |
All model parameters and initial conditions are accessible via the interlace and therefore changeable by users. Example areas where policy interventions can be introduced into the model are • Demographics: fertility, mortality (in more detail via the health model), and migration—all of which affect population growth and level. • Economics: on the production side are investment, labor force participation, and productivity (via assumptions about systemic advance, convergence rate, and a wide range of specific endogenous drivers); interventions are also possible on savings levels and consumption patterns and on patterns of trade. • Education: enrollment, continuation, and completion/transition rates; spending levels. • Health: mortality and morbidity rates across 15 different causes. • Socio-Political Change: government revenue and expenditure patterns from multiple sources and to multiple targets; corruption and democracy levels; status of women; value change. • Geopolitics: Country and regional power levels. • Food and Agriculture: Land use and yield/production levels; trade patterns—all of which affect calorie availability and malnutrition rates. • Energy: Resource and production level by energy type including renewable energy share, demand level and patterns. • Infrastructure: investment and access extension by type (road, water, sanitation, electricity, ICT). • Environment: atmospheric carbon dioxide levels via interventions in models noted above (e.g. land use, carbon intensity of energy); water demand by final use and water supply by source. Prepackaged scenario intervention files also allow integrated analysis of scenario sets including the UNEP GEO-4 set and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) set.