Energy conversion - POLES
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | SimulationRecursive simulation |
| Anticipation | Myopic |
Electricity
The electricity system consists on 3 main parts:
Demand load curve
The load curve is derived form sectoral electricity demand (depending on the type of use), net trade and losses. POLES considers 2 typical days (winter and summer), each split into 12 time arrays of 2 hours each. A demand load curve is derived for each sector and each country along these 24 time blocks (2 days * 12 periods).
Production
The electricity production system involves different power generation systems:
- Decentralised production (decentralised PV, autoproduction, ..), that may depend on the days / hour.
- Centralised production, that need to fill the difference between total demand and decentralised production. The model considers various degree of flexibility of the production means, and thus different abilities to meet the peak / base load curves. Three types of technologies are defined: intermittent sources (wind and solar w/o storage), must-run source (nuclear and some hydro, with little ability to adapt), merit order sources (fossil fuels and biomass as well as some hydro, with higher ability to adapt). Based on these load curve constraints, production depends on variable production costs (efficiency and fuel cost, including addition taxes or financial support schemes).
Capacity planning
The planning of new capacities needs to adress expected future electricity needs while considering the upcoming decomissioning of existing plants. The model calculates theoretical technnology market shares for various duration blocks (730h to 8760h), from total production cost by duration block and infrastructure (/ reality) coefficients that are calibrated to replicate historical technology mix. The development of new capacities depend on these theoretical market shares, development, resource constraints and identified "new" needs (net of decomissioned plants).
Total production cost is the sum of fixed cost (investment, lifetime, discount rate, fixed OM) and variable cost (fuel cost, efficiency, variable O&M), including further taxes or financial support schemes. Investment costs evolve with learning functions (exogenous, endogenous 1 factor, endogenous 2 factors), efficiency evolves exogenously, other parameters can be differentiated by country and technology, fuel costs are derived from endogenous fuel prices and assumptions on taxation policies.
36405512.png Figure 1. Electricity production technologies in POLES.
In addition to the technologies mentioned in Figure 1, one POLES version includes a further details of biomass technologies in the EU, based on work with the GREEN-X model.
Electricity prices
Finally the POLES model calculates electricity prices from system production cost for base load (used to set the price for industry) and peak load (used to set the price for residential-services-transport).
Information sources include: Enerdata, Eurostat, IEA, ENTSO-E, ETDB
Heat
Steam demand is set exogenously in POLES, although capped at a given share of total energy demand for heat purposes. Steam can be produced by CHP plants and steam-only plants, which inputs are accounted for in POLES within the "own use" of the energy sectorThe production of steam if not simulated explicitely. The model checks that the evolution of steam demand is consistent with the evolution of the "own use" of the energy sector and with the availability of "CHP compatible" power plants.
Other heat-related demand is satisified by boilers and heaters using other energy vectors (oil, gas, coal, biomass, electricity, solar heat).