Snapshot of - PROMETHEUS

Archive of PROMETHEUS, version: 1.0

Reference card - PROMETHEUS

The reference card is a clearly defined description of model features. The numerous options have been organized into a limited amount of default and model specific (non default) options. In addition some features are described by a short clarifying text.

Legend:

• not implemented
• implemented
• implemented (not default option)

About

Name and version

PROMETHEUS 1.0

Model link

https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools/prometheus/

Institution

E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools.

Documentation

PROMETHEUS documentation consists of a referencecard and detailed model documentation

Process state

under review

Model scope and methods

Model documentation: Model scope and methods - PROMETHEUS

Model type

• Integrated assessment model
• Energy system model
• CGE
• CBA-integrated assessment model

Geographical scope

• Global
• Regional

Objective

PROMETHEUS is a global energy system model covering in detail the complex interactions between energy demand, supply and energy prices at the regional and global level. Its main objectives are: 1) Assess climate change mitigation pathways and low-emission development strategies for the medium and long-term 2) Analyse the energy system, economic and emission implications of a wide spectrum of energy and climate policy measures, differentiated by region and sector) 3) Explore the economics of fossil fuel production and quantify the impacts of climate policies on the evolution of global energy prices

Solution concept

• Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
• Partial equilibrium (fixed demand)
• General equilibrium (closed economy)

Solution horizon

• Recursive dynamic (myopic)
• Intertemporal optimization (foresight)

Solution method

• Simulation
• Optimization

Anticipation

Energy system simulation.Foresight is included only is some sub-modules (i.e. electricity generation)

Temporal dimension

Base year:2000, time steps:1, horizon: 2100

Spatial dimension

Number of regions:10

1. China
2. India
3. North America
4. OECD Pacific
5. EU-28
6. Middle East and North Africa
7. CIS
8. Emerging Economies
9. Rest of the world

Time discounting type

• Discount rate exogenous
• Discount rate endogenous

Policies

• Emission tax
• Emission pricing
• Cap and trade
• Fuel taxes
• Fuel subsidies
• Feed-in-tariff
• Portfolio standard
• Capacity targets
• Emission standards
• Energy efficiency standards
• Agricultural producer subsidies
• Agricultural consumer subsidies
• Land protection
• Pricing carbon stocks

Socio-economic drivers

Model documentation: Socio-economic drivers - PROMETHEUS

Population

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Population age structure

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Education level

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Urbanization rate

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

GDP

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Income distribution

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Employment rate

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Labor productivity

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Total factor productivity

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Autonomous energy efficiency improvements

• Yes (exogenous)
• Yes (endogenous)

Macro-economy

Model documentation: Macro-economy - PROMETHEUS

Economic sector

Industry

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Energy

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Transportation

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Residential and commercial

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Agriculture

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Forestry

• Yes (physical)
• Yes (economic)
• Yes (physical & economic)

Macro-economy

Trade

• Coal
• Oil
• Gas
• Uranium
• Electricity
• Bioenergy crops
• Food crops
• Capital
• Emissions permits
• Non-energy goods

Cost measures

• GDP loss
• Welfare loss
• Consumption loss
• Area under MAC
• Energy system cost mark-up

Categorization by group

• Income
• Urban - rural
• Technology adoption
• Age
• Gender
• Education level
• Household size

Institutional and political factors

• Early retirement of capital allowed
• Interest rates differentiated by country/region
• Regional risk factors included
• Technology costs differentiated by country/region
• Technological change differentiated by country/region
• Behavioural change differentiated by country/region
• Constraints on cross country financial transfers

Resource use

Coal

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Conventional Oil

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Unconventional Oil

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Conventional Gas

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Unconventional Gas

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Uranium

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Bioenergy

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Water

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Raw Materials

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Land

• Yes (fixed)
• Yes (supply curve)
• Yes (process model)

Technological change

Energy conversion technologies

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Energy End-use

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Material Use

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Agriculture (tc)

• No technological change
• Exogenous technological change
• Endogenous technological change

Energy

Model documentation: Energy - PROMETHEUS

Energy technology substitution

Energy technology choice

• No discrete technology choices
• Logit choice model
• Production function
• Linear choice (lowest cost)
• Lowest cost with adjustment penalties

Energy technology substitutability

• Mostly high substitutability
• Mostly low substitutability
• Mixed high and low substitutability

Energy technology deployment

• Expansion and decline constraints
• System integration constraints

Energy

Electricity technologies

• Coal w/o CCS
• Coal w/ CCS
• Gas w/o CCS
• Gas w/ CCS
• Oil w/o CCS
• Oil w/ CCS
• Bioenergy w/o CCS
• Bioenergy w/ CCS
• Geothermal power
• Nuclear power
• Solar power
• Solar power-central PV
• Solar power-distributed PV
• Solar power-CSP
• Wind power
• Wind power-onshore
• Wind power-offshore
• Hydroelectric power
• Ocean power

Hydrogen production

• Coal to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Coal to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Natural gas to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Natural gas to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Oil to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Oil to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Biomass to hydrogen w/o CCS
• Biomass to hydrogen w/ CCS
• Nuclear thermochemical hydrogen
• Solar thermochemical hydrogen
• Electrolysis

Refined liquids

• Coal to liquids w/o CCS
• Coal to liquids w/ CCS
• Gas to liquids w/o CCS
• Gas to liquids w/ CCS
• Bioliquids w/o CCS
• Bioliquids w/ CCS
• Oil refining

Refined gases

• Coal to gas w/o CCS
• Coal to gas w/ CCS
• Oil to gas w/o CCS
• Oil to gas w/ CCS
• Biomass to gas w/o CCS
• Biomass to gas w/ CCS

Heat generation

• Coal heat
• Natural gas heat
• Oil heat
• Biomass heat
• Geothermal heat
• Solarthermal heat
• CHP (coupled heat and power)

Grid Infra Structure

Electricity

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Gas

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Heat

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

CO2

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Hydrogen

• Yes (aggregate)
• Yes (spatially explicit)

Energy end-use technologies

Passenger transportation

• Passenger trains
• Buses
• Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs)
• Electric LDVs
• Hydrogen LDVs
• Hybrid LDVs
• Gasoline LDVs
• Diesel LDVs
• Passenger aircrafts

Freight transportation

• Freight trains
• Heavy duty vehicles
• Freight aircrafts
• Freight ships

Industry

• Steel production
• Aluminium production
• Cement production
• Petrochemical production
• Paper production
• Plastics production
• Pulp production

Residential and commercial

• Space heating
• Space cooling
• Cooking
• Refrigeration
• Washing
• Lighting

Land-use

Model documentation: Land-use - PROMETHEUS

Land cover

• Cropland
• Cropland irrigated
• Cropland food crops
• Cropland feed crops
• Cropland energy crops
• Forest
• Managed forest
• Natural forest
• Pasture
• Shrubland
• Built-up area

Agriculture and forestry demands

• Agriculture food
• Agriculture food crops
• Agriculture food livestock
• Agriculture feed
• Agriculture feed crops
• Agriculture feed livestock
• Agriculture non-food
• Agriculture non-food crops
• Agriculture non-food livestock
• Agriculture bioenergy
• Agriculture residues
• Forest industrial roundwood
• Forest fuelwood
• Forest residues

Agricultural commodities

• Wheat
• Rice
• Other coarse grains
• Oilseeds
• Sugar crops
• Ruminant meat
• Non-ruminant meat and eggs
• Dairy products

Emission, climate and impacts

Model documentation: Emissions - PROMETHEUS, Climate - PROMETHEUS, Non-climate sustainability dimension - PROMETHEUS

Greenhouse gases

• CO2 fossil fuels
• CO2 cement
• CO2 land use
• CH4 energy
• CH4 land use
• CH4 other
• N2O energy
• N2O land use
• N2O other
• CFCs
• HFCs
• SF6
• PFCs

Pollutants

• CO energy
• CO land use
• CO other
• NOx energy
• NOx land use
• NOx other
• VOC energy
• VOC land use
• VOC other
• SO2 energy
• SO2 land use
• SO2 other
• BC energy
• BC land use
• BC other
• OC energy
• OC land use
• OC other
• NH3 energy
• NH3 land use
• NH3 other

Climate indicators

• Concentration: CO2
• Concentration: CH4
• Concentration: N2O
• Concentration: Kyoto gases
• Radiative forcing: CO2
• Radiative forcing: CH4
• Radiative forcing: N2O
• Radiative forcing: F-gases
• Radiative forcing: Kyoto gases
• Radiative forcing: aerosols
• Radiative forcing: land albedo
• Radiative forcing: AN3A
• Radiative forcing: total
• Temperature change
• Sea level rise
• Ocean acidification

Carbon dioxide removal

• Bioenergy with CCS
• Reforestation
• Afforestation
• Soil carbon enhancement
• Direct air capture
• Enhanced weathering

Climate change impacts

• Agriculture
• Energy supply
• Energy demand
• Economic output
• Built capital
• Inequality

Co-Linkages

• Energy security: Fossil fuel imports & exports (region)
• Energy access: Household energy consumption
• Air pollution & health: Source-based aerosol emissions
• Air pollution & health: Health impacts of air Pollution
• Food access
• Water availability
• Biodiversity

Model Documentation - PROMETHEUS

The PROMETHEUS model provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, power generation mix, energy-related carbon emissions, energy prices and investment to the future covering the global energy system. PROMETHEUS is a fully fledged energy demand and supply simulation model aiming at addressing energy system analysis, energy price projections, power generation planning and climate change mitigation policies. PROMETHEUS contains relations and/or exogenous variables for all the main quantities, which are of interest in the context of general energy systems analysis. These include demographic and economic activity indicators, primary and final energy consumption by main fuel, fuel resources and prices, CO2 emissions, greenhouse gases concentrations and technology dynamics (for power generation, road transport, hydrogen production and industrial and residential end-use technologies).

PROMETHEUS quantifies CO2 emissions and incorporates environmentally oriented emission abatement technologies (like RES, electric vehicles, CCS, energy efficiency) and policy instruments. The latter include both market based instruments such as cap and trade systems with differential application per region and sector specific policies and measures focusing on specific carbon emitting activities. Key characteristics of the model, that are particularly pertinent for performing the analysis of the implications of alternative climate abatement scenarios, include world supply/demand resolution for determining the prices of internationally traded fuels and technology dynamics mechanisms for simulating spill-over effects for technological improvements (increased uptake of a new technology in one part of the world leads to improvements through learning by experience which eventually benefits the energy systems in other parts of the World).

PROMETHEUS is designed to provide medium and long term energy system projections and system restructuring up to 2050, both in the demand and the supply sides. The model produces analytical quantitative results in the form of detailed energy balances in the period 2015 to 2050 annually. The model can support impact assessment of specific energy and environment policies and measures, applied at regional and global level, including price signals, such as taxation, subsidies, technology and energy efficiency promoting policies, RES supporting policies, environmental policies and technology standards.

PROMETHEUS is a self-contained large-scale world energy demand and supply model consisting of a large set of equations describing the time evolution of key variables, which are of interest in the context of a general analysis of the energy-environment-economic system. The model can be used either in its deterministic or in its stochastic mode. Equations in PROMETHEUS represent the model’s endogenous variables as a function of other endogenous variables, exogenous variables, parameters and residual terms. PROMETHEUS incorporates a recursive dynamic (partial equilibrium energy system) model with annual resolution currently serviced to run up to the year 2050 (the process to extend model horizon to 2100 is ongoing). The PROMETHEUS model has a triangular structure in order to avoid contemporaneous simultaneity. On the other hand, simultaneity is modelled through lagged instances of endogenous variables. Most of the model equations are specified in difference terms in order to avoid excessive early variability and adequately represent accumulation of uncertainty in the longer term.

The model simulates both demand and supply of energy, interacting with each other to form market equilibrium at different regional scales: detailed regional balances are aggregated in order to simulate world energy markets. Apart from international fuel prices, regional energy systems influence each other particularly through trade, technical progress and network effects including changing patterns of consumption and spillover effects with regard to technology diffusion.

The geographical representation is based on the importance of countries in energy consumption and GHG emissions. PROMETHEUS describes full energy and emissions balances for 10 geographical units, in particular for: China, India, North America (USA and Canada), OECD Pacific (Japan, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand), EU-28, CIS (Russian Federation and other Commonwealth of Independent States), MENA (Middle East and North Africa), EMRG (Emerging economies) and RESTW (Rest of the world). The model runs with a 1 year time step, usually from 2018 to 2050, the 2015-2018 period being almost entirely set by data and used for calibration. The model horizon will be expanded to 2100.

PROMETHEUS model is organized in sub-models (modules), each one representing the behaviour of a representative agent, a demander and/or a supplier of energy. The figure below presents a simplified summary flow chart of the PROMETHEUS model. The main modules are:

1) The demographic and economic activity module, which projects population and activity growth for each region.

2) The fossil fuel supply module that includes oil and gas resources, while coal is assumed to have abundant supplies relative to production prospects at least for the projection time horizon

3) The biomass supply module, which contains technical and economic potential for biomass per region and their effects on biomass costs.

4) The cost-supply curves for renewable energy sources (RES) module.

5) The fuel prices module projecting both international and final consumer prices, with the latter being differentiated for each demand sector. Global fossil fuel prices are determined from the equilibrium of demand and supply of each fuel at the global level.

6) The final energy demand module, projecting energy demand and fuel mix in three main sectors; industry, transport and residential/services/agriculture sector. The following energy forms are considered as options in the final demand sectors: natural gas, oil, coal, biofuels, electricity, steam and hydrogen. The private passenger cars sector is modelled in detail, by distinguishing the following types of passenger cars: internal combustion engine cars (using gasoline, diesel, biofuels or hydrogen as a fuel), conventional and plug-in hybrids, electric cars and fuel-cell cars (using hydrogen or gasoline as a fuel).

7) The electricity generation module, identifying 26 power generation technologies and their competition to cover electricity demand for base, medium and peak load.

8) The hydrogen production sub-model, identifying 18 hydrogen production options

9)The hydrogen storage and delivery module, including 16 different technological options in order to represent in detail the development of hydrogen infrastructure.

10) The technology dynamics module, which endogenises technical progress through both learning by research and learning by experience (“learning by doing”) mechanisms.

12) The technology diffusion module incorporating network effects accelerating spillovers between regions in cases where technology uptake attains critical levels

PROMETHEUS modules