Snapshot of - IFs
Archive of IFs, version: 7.36
Reference card - IFs
The reference card is a clearly defined description of model features. The numerous options have been organized into a limited amount of default and model specific (non default) options. In addition some features are described by a short clarifying text.
Legend:
- not implemented
- implemented
- implemented (not default option)
About
Name and version
IFs International Futures 7.36
Model link
Institution
Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver (Pardee Center), Colorado, USA, https://pardee.du.edu/.
Documentation
IFs documentation consists of a referencecard and detailed model documentation
Process state
under review
Model scope and methods
Model documentation: Model scope and methods - IFs
Model type
- Integrated assessment model
- Energy system model
- CGE
- CBA-integrated assessment model
Geographical scope
- Global
- Regional
Solution concept
- Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
- Partial equilibrium (fixed demand)
- General equilibrium (closed economy)
Solution horizon
- Recursive dynamic (myopic)
- Intertemporal optimization (foresight)
Solution method
- Simulation
- Optimization
- Dynamic recursive with annual time steps through 2100.
Anticipation
Myopic
Temporal dimension
Base year:2015, time steps:1 year time steps, horizon: 2100
Spatial dimension
Number of regions:186
- Afghanistan
- Albania
- Algeria
- Angola
- Argentina
- Armenia
- Australia
- Austria
- Azerbaijan
- Bahamas
- Bahrain
- Bangladesh
- Barbados
- Belarus
- Belgium
- Belize
- Benin
- Bhutan
- Bolivia
- Bosnia
- Botswana
- Brazil
- Brunei
- Bulgaria
- Burkina Faso
- Burundi
- Cambodia
- Cameroon
- Canada
- Cape Verde
- Central African Republic
- Chad
- Chile
- China
- Colombia
- Comoros
- Congo, Democratic Republic of
- Congo, Republic of
- Costa Rica
- Cote d'Ivoire
- Croatia
- Cuba
- Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Denmark
- Djibouti
- Dominican Republic
- Ecuador
- Egypt
- El Salvador
- Equatorial Guinea
- Eritrea
- Estonia
- Ethiopia
- Fiji
- Finland
- France
- Gabon
- Gambia
- Georgia
- Germany
- Ghana
- Greece
- Grenada
- Guatemala
- Guinea
- Guinea Bissau
- Guyana
- Haiti
- Honduras
- Hong Kong
- Hungary
- Iceland
- India
- Indonesia
- Iran
- Iraq
- Ireland
- Israel
- Italy
- Jamaica
- Japan
- Jordan
- Kazakhstan
- Kenya
- North Korea
- South Korea
- Kosovo
- Kuwait
- Kyrgyzstan
- Laos
- Latvia
- Lebanon
- Lesotho
- Liberia
- Libya
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Macedonia
- Madagascar
- Malawi
- Malaysia
- Maldives
- Mali
- Malta
- Mauritania
- Mauritius
- Mexico
- Micronesia
- Moldova
- Mongolia
- Montenegro
- Morocco
- Mozambique
- Myanmar
- Namibia
- Nepal
- Netherlands
- New Zealand
- Nicaragua
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Norway
- Oman
- Pakistan
- Palestine
- Panama
- Papua New Guinea
- Paraguay
- Peru
- Philippines
- Poland
- Portugal
- Puerto Rico
- Qatar
- Romania
- Russia
- Rwanda
- Samoa
- Sao Tome and Principe
- Saudi Arabia
- Senegal
- Serbia
- Seychelles
- Sierra Leone
- Singapore
- Slovak Republic
- Slovenia
- Solomon Islands
- Somalia
- South Africa
- Spain
- Sri Lanka
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- Sudan
- South Sudan
- Suriname
- Swaziland
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- Syria
- Taiwan
- Tajikistan
- Tanzania
- Thailand
- Timor-Leste
- Togo
- Tonga
- Trinidad
- Tunisia
- Turkey
- Turkmenistan
- UAE
- Uganda
- Ukraine
- United Kingdom
- Uruguay
- USA
- Uzbekistan
- Vanuatu
- Venezuela
- Vietnam
- Yemen
- Zambia
- Zimbabwe
Time discounting type
- Discount rate exogenous
- Discount rate endogenous
Policies
- Emission tax
- Emission pricing
- Cap and trade
- Fuel taxes
- Fuel subsidies
- Feed-in-tariff
- Portfolio standard
- Capacity targets
- Emission standards
- Energy efficiency standards
- Agricultural producer subsidies
- Agricultural consumer subsidies
- Land protection
- Pricing carbon stocks
Socio-economic drivers
Model documentation: Socio-economic drivers - IFs
Population
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Population age structure
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Education level
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Urbanization rate
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
GDP
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Income distribution
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Employment rate
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Labor productivity
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Total factor productivity
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Autonomous energy efficiency improvements
- Yes (exogenous)
- Yes (endogenous)
Macro-economy
Model documentation: Macro-economy - IFs
Economic sector
Industry
- Yes (physical)
- Yes (economic)
- Yes (physical & economic)
Energy
- Yes (physical)
- Yes (economic)
- Yes (physical & economic)
Transportation
- Yes (physical)
- Yes (economic)
- Yes (physical & economic)
Residential and commercial
- Yes (physical)
- Yes (economic)
- Yes (physical & economic)
Agriculture
- Yes (physical)
- Yes (economic)
- Yes (physical & economic)
Forestry
- Yes (physical)
- Yes (economic)
- Yes (physical & economic)
Other economic sector
- Materials
- Manufactures
- ICT tech
Macro-economy
Trade
- Coal
- Oil
- Gas
- Uranium
- Electricity
- Bioenergy crops
- Food crops
- Capital
- Emissions permits
- Non-energy goods
- Energy
- Agriculture
- Materials
- Manufactures
- Services
- ICT tech
Cost measures
- GDP loss
- Welfare loss
- Consumption loss
- Area under MAC
- Energy system cost mark-up
Categorization by group
- Income
- Urban - rural
- Technology adoption
- Age
- Gender
- Education level
- Household size
Institutional and political factors
- Early retirement of capital allowed
- Interest rates differentiated by country/region
- Regional risk factors included
- Technology costs differentiated by country/region
- Technological change differentiated by country/region
- Behavioural change differentiated by country/region
- Constraints on cross country financial transfers
Resource use
Coal
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Conventional Oil
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Unconventional Oil
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Conventional Gas
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Unconventional Gas
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Uranium
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Bioenergy
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Water
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Raw Materials
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Land
- Yes (fixed)
- Yes (supply curve)
- Yes (process model)
Technological change
Energy conversion technologies
- No technological change
- Exogenous technological change
- Endogenous technological change
Energy End-use
- No technological change
- Exogenous technological change
- Endogenous technological change
Material Use
- No technological change
- Exogenous technological change
- Endogenous technological change
Agriculture (tc)
- No technological change
- Exogenous technological change
- Endogenous technological change
Energy
Model documentation: Energy - IFs
Energy technology substitution
Energy technology choice
- No discrete technology choices
- Logit choice model
- Production function
- Linear choice (lowest cost)
- Lowest cost with adjustment penalties
Energy technology substitutability
- Mostly high substitutability
- Mostly low substitutability
- Mixed high and low substitutability
Energy technology deployment
- Expansion and decline constraints
- System integration constraints
Energy
Electricity technologies
- Coal w/o CCS
- Coal w/ CCS
- Gas w/o CCS
- Gas w/ CCS
- Oil w/o CCS
- Oil w/ CCS
- Bioenergy w/o CCS
- Bioenergy w/ CCS
- Geothermal power
- Nuclear power
- Solar power
- Solar power-central PV
- Solar power-distributed PV
- Solar power-CSP
- Wind power
- Wind power-onshore
- Wind power-offshore
- Hydroelectric power
- Ocean power
Note: Electricity is aggregated for all fuel types in the model.
Hydrogen production
- Coal to hydrogen w/o CCS
- Coal to hydrogen w/ CCS
- Natural gas to hydrogen w/o CCS
- Natural gas to hydrogen w/ CCS
- Oil to hydrogen w/o CCS
- Oil to hydrogen w/ CCS
- Biomass to hydrogen w/o CCS
- Biomass to hydrogen w/ CCS
- Nuclear thermochemical hydrogen
- Solar thermochemical hydrogen
- Electrolysis
Refined liquids
- Coal to liquids w/o CCS
- Coal to liquids w/ CCS
- Gas to liquids w/o CCS
- Gas to liquids w/ CCS
- Bioliquids w/o CCS
- Bioliquids w/ CCS
- Oil refining
Refined gases
- Coal to gas w/o CCS
- Coal to gas w/ CCS
- Oil to gas w/o CCS
- Oil to gas w/ CCS
- Biomass to gas w/o CCS
- Biomass to gas w/ CCS
Heat generation
- Coal heat
- Natural gas heat
- Oil heat
- Biomass heat
- Geothermal heat
- Solarthermal heat
- CHP (coupled heat and power)
Grid Infra Structure
Electricity
- Yes (aggregate)
- Yes (spatially explicit)
Gas
- Yes (aggregate)
- Yes (spatially explicit)
Heat
- Yes (aggregate)
- Yes (spatially explicit)
CO2
- Yes (aggregate)
- Yes (spatially explicit)
Hydrogen
- Yes (aggregate)
- Yes (spatially explicit)
Energy end-use technologies
Passenger transportation
- Passenger trains
- Buses
- Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs)
- Electric LDVs
- Hydrogen LDVs
- Hybrid LDVs
- Gasoline LDVs
- Diesel LDVs
- Passenger aircrafts
Freight transportation
- Freight trains
- Heavy duty vehicles
- Freight aircrafts
- Freight ships
Industry
- Steel production
- Aluminium production
- Cement production
- Petrochemical production
- Paper production
- Plastics production
- Pulp production
Residential and commercial
- Space heating
- Space cooling
- Cooking
- Refrigeration
- Washing
- Lighting
Land-use
Model documentation: Land-use - IFs
Land cover
- Cropland
- Cropland irrigated
- Cropland food crops
- Cropland feed crops
- Cropland energy crops
- Forest
- Managed forest
- Natural forest
- Pasture
- Shrubland
- Built-up area
Agriculture and forestry demands
- Agriculture food
- Agriculture food crops
- Agriculture food livestock
- Agriculture feed
- Agriculture feed crops
- Agriculture feed livestock
- Agriculture non-food
- Agriculture non-food crops
- Agriculture non-food livestock
- Agriculture bioenergy
- Agriculture residues
- Forest industrial roundwood
- Forest fuelwood
- Forest residues
Agricultural commodities
- Wheat
- Rice
- Other coarse grains
- Oilseeds
- Sugar crops
- Ruminant meat
- Non-ruminant meat and eggs
- Dairy products
Emission, climate and impacts
Model documentation: Emissions - IFs, Climate - IFs, Non-climate sustainability dimension - IFs
Greenhouse gases
- CO2 fossil fuels
- CO2 cement
- CO2 land use
- CH4 energy
- CH4 land use
- CH4 other
- N2O energy
- N2O land use
- N2O other
- CFCs
- HFCs
- SF6
- PFCs
Pollutants
- CO energy
- CO land use
- CO other
- NOx energy
- NOx land use
- NOx other
- VOC energy
- VOC land use
- VOC other
- SO2 energy
- SO2 land use
- SO2 other
- BC energy
- BC land use
- BC other
- OC energy
- OC land use
- OC other
- NH3 energy
- NH3 land use
- NH3 other
Climate indicators
- Concentration: CO2
- Concentration: CH4
- Concentration: N2O
- Concentration: Kyoto gases
- Radiative forcing: CO2
- Radiative forcing: CH4
- Radiative forcing: N2O
- Radiative forcing: F-gases
- Radiative forcing: Kyoto gases
- Radiative forcing: aerosols
- Radiative forcing: land albedo
- Radiative forcing: AN3A
- Radiative forcing: total
- Temperature change
- Sea level rise
- Ocean acidification
- Precipitation change
Carbon dioxide removal
- Bioenergy with CCS
- Reforestation
- Afforestation
- Soil carbon enhancement
- Direct air capture
- Enhanced weathering
Climate change impacts
- Agriculture
- Energy supply
- Energy demand
- Economic output
- Built capital
- Inequality
Co-Linkages
- Energy security: Fossil fuel imports & exports (region)
- Energy access: Household energy consumption
- Air pollution & health: Source-based aerosol emissions
- Air pollution & health: Health impacts of air Pollution
- Food access
- Water availability
- Biodiversity
Model Documentation - IFs
International Futures (IFs) is a long-term integrated assessment system, which is a collection of multiple hard–linked, heavily interconnected models. Although sometimes referred to as modules, they are large-scale models in and of themselves. IFs represents 188 countries connected through a variety of flows, facilitates aggregation of them to global regions, and allows subdivision of them into more local socio-political units. It is dynamic recursive with annual time steps to 2100 and beyond (while myopic, many supply-demand equilibrating mechanisms with target specifications direct attention forward). The IFs system has an extensive user-friendly interface and is available for use by others both on-line and in a downloadable version, and it is open source.
The IFs system is extensively documented elsewhere. See Hughes (2019) for attention to the full system and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Future’s website at https://korbel.du.edu/pardee for detailed model-by-model documentation. There is an interactive wiki at https://pardeewiki.du.edu/index.php?title=International_Futures_(IFs). Via Pardee’s website it is also possible freely to use IFs on line at https://www.ifs.du.edu/ifs/frm_MainMenu.aspx or to download IFs for use on machines with Windows operating systems from https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/download-ifs.
The purpose here is to provide a much shorter summary version of IFs documentation. Major models in IFs (see Figure 1 below) include
- a multistate population model, which represents 22 age sex cohorts to age 100+ and differentiates their educational attainment and cause-specific mortality patterns in the endogenous calculation of age-specific fertility and mortality.
- a multisector general equilibrium economic model, which uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time; it provides labor, investment, and consumption information to partial equilibrium energy and agriculture models as well as GDP and GDP per capita (at market exchange rates and purchasing power parity) to all IFs models. Its structure contains a full social accounting matrix (SAM) representing financial flows among households, firms, and governments.
- an education model that tracks grade-by-grade student progression and aging of adults with variable attainment levels.
- a health model that represents age-sex specific mortality and morbidly by 15 causes of death.
- socio-political representations that include governance capacity and stability, as well as information on social values and cultural change.
- an international politics model that calculates multiple measures of national power plus patterns of interstate relationships, both positive and representing threat and conflict.
- an energy model (which portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable). Physical values from the partial equilibrium model are converted to currency values to replace those in the general equilibrium economic model.
- an agricultural model, which is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes) the model represents crop, gazing, forest, developed and other land. As with energy, physical values converted to monetary values override selected sectoral values in the general equilibrium model..
- an infrastructure model that projects paved roads, access to safe water and sanitation, electricity access, and access to various forms of information and communications technology,
- an environmental model, which allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, area of forested land, water supply-demand, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and changes in temperature and precipitation.
- an implicit technology model with elements scattered across other models, which allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in health, agriculture, energy, and the broader economy.
The variables shown as linking the models in Figure 1 are only a small subset of those that do so; the sections that explain the models will explain those and other linkage variables.
Figure 1: The basic models of the IFs system and illustrative linkages
Although other issues such as air quality, deforestation and species extinction have been very important, the very rapid development of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) during the 1980s, 1990s, and more recently was driven substantially by the recognition of the reality and danger of climate change. That and a call from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for a research organization focused on alternative climate futures led in 2007 to the establishment of the IAM Consortium. The Pardee Institute for International Futures is a member of the IAMC and IFs is an IAM. Its attention to energy, agriculture, and the environment reinforces its IAM character.
IFs differs, however, from most of the models developed and used by institutional members of the IAMC. Most of those models do not have elaborated demographic and economic treatment but rely instead on alternative scenarios of population and GDP futures generated by models specialized in producing those. The creation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) has codified that use for most models. Similarly, attention to education and health is almost non-existent in other IAMs, and the attention in IFs to governance/socio-cultural change and international politics is unique. Across its developmental history, attention to broad sets of issues like those represented by the earlier Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) and the successor Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has motivated much of IFs development.
On the other hand, the treatment within IFs of environmental issues is considerably less developed than that of typical IAMs. That treatment is, however, of importance, and this document will provide summary details on it as well as on the other models in the IFs system.
A very important feature of the IFs system is that it is imbedded in an interactive user interface. The interface allows access to all the data that underlies model base-year initialization and facilitates estimation of functional forms, to a wide range of display options for examining results within and across model runs, and to a scenario-development interface for changing parameters within functional forms or more directly reshaping the behavior of model formulations via a wide range of multipliers and/or additive factors. The interface facilitates saving, retrieving, and modifying sets of scenario interventions, including direct exogenous specification of 11 or more key variables, including many that have come from quantification by other models focused on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The interface also facilitates saving, retrieving, and modifying resultant run files, as well as comparing runs files in research analyses and across model versions.
At https://ifsnetworkdiagram.du.edu is an interactive diagram that graphically shows the variables and parameters in the IFs models (modules) and allows exploration of causality and directional interconnection. More complete documentation of IFs is available on the Pardee Institute’s website at https://korbel.du.edu/pardee. A direct link to the IFs wiki is https://pardeewiki.du.edu/index.php?title=International_Futures_(IFs). Via the Pardee Institute’s website it is possible freely to use IFs on line at https://www.ifs.du.edu/ifs/frm_MainMenu.aspx or to download IFs for use on machines with Windows operating systems from https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/content/download-ifs.
The model code (but at this point not the interface code) is open source. For access to text files of the code and appropriate software to change it, contact the Pardee Institute and accept a general public use license that requires sharing code changes with the Institute. The programing language is vb.NET and the interface is built in asp.NET, which needs to run using Microsoft’s Internet Information Services (IIS).
Note: Energy trade is represented in a 'pooled' approach - imports and exports are aggregated across energy types.