Temporal dimension - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM: Difference between revisions

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MESSAGE models the time horizon 1990 to 2110 in 5- and 10 year time steps where the first 5 periods (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010) are 5-year periods and the remaining 10 periods are 10-year periods (2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110). The first four periods up to 2005 are fully calibrated, i.e. the model has no flexibility to change in these five periods. The 2010 period is partly calibrated so far, some recent trends are included in this time period, but some flexibility remains. In scenario applications the 2010 period is typically fixed to its baseline development so that future climate and energy policy cannot induce changes in the past. The reporting years are the final years of periods which implies that investments that lead to the capacities in the reporting year are the average annual investments over the entire period the reporting year belongs to.
MESSAGEix models the time horizon from 2010 to 2110, generally in 10-year periods (2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110), using 2010 as the base year. The 2020 period is partly calibrated so far, with some recent trends included in this time period, but some flexibility remains. The reporting years are the final years in periods, which implies that investments that lead to the capacity in the reporting year are the average annual investments over the entire period the reporting year belongs to. In some model versions, the model has been calibrated to 2015, running with 5-year modeling periods to roughly the middle of the century (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, 2060) and 10-year periods between 2060 and 2110.


MESSAGE can both operate perfect foresight over the entire time horizon, limited foresight (e.g., one or two periods into the future) or myopically, optimizing one period at a time (Keppo and Strubegger, 2010 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_keppo_short_2010]]). Most frequently MESSAGE is run with perfect foresight, but for specific applications such as delayed participation in a global climate regime without anticipation (Krey and Riahi, 2009 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_krey_implications_2009]]; O'Neill et al., 2010 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_oneill_mitigation_2010]]) limited foresight is used.
MESSAGEix can both operate perfect foresight over the entire time horizon, limited foresight (e.g., two or three periods into the future) or myopically, optimizing one period at a time (Keppo and Strubegger, 2010 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_keppo_short_2010]]). Most frequently MESSAGEix is run with perfect foresight, but for specific applications such as delayed participation in a global climate regime without anticipation (Krey and Riahi, 2009 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_krey_implications_2009]]; O'Neill et al., 2010 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_oneill_mitigation_2010]]), limited foresight is used.
 
GLOBIOM models the time horizon from 2000 to 2100 in 10-year time steps (2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100), with the year 2000 as the base year.  The model is recursive-dynamic, i.e. it is solved for each period individually and then passes on results to the subsequent periods. The linkage between MESSAGEix and GLOBIOM relies on the model results of the periods 2020 to 2100.

Latest revision as of 12:52, 12 November 2020

Model Documentation - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at.
Solution concept General equilibrium (closed economy)
Solution method Optimization
Anticipation

MESSAGEix models the time horizon from 2010 to 2110, generally in 10-year periods (2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110), using 2010 as the base year. The 2020 period is partly calibrated so far, with some recent trends included in this time period, but some flexibility remains. The reporting years are the final years in periods, which implies that investments that lead to the capacity in the reporting year are the average annual investments over the entire period the reporting year belongs to. In some model versions, the model has been calibrated to 2015, running with 5-year modeling periods to roughly the middle of the century (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, 2060) and 10-year periods between 2060 and 2110.

MESSAGEix can both operate perfect foresight over the entire time horizon, limited foresight (e.g., two or three periods into the future) or myopically, optimizing one period at a time (Keppo and Strubegger, 2010 MSG-GLB_keppo_short_2010). Most frequently MESSAGEix is run with perfect foresight, but for specific applications such as delayed participation in a global climate regime without anticipation (Krey and Riahi, 2009 MSG-GLB_krey_implications_2009; O'Neill et al., 2010 MSG-GLB_oneill_mitigation_2010), limited foresight is used.

GLOBIOM models the time horizon from 2000 to 2100 in 10-year time steps (2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100), with the year 2000 as the base year. The model is recursive-dynamic, i.e. it is solved for each period individually and then passes on results to the subsequent periods. The linkage between MESSAGEix and GLOBIOM relies on the model results of the periods 2020 to 2100.

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