Population - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
| Corresponding documentation | |
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| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at. |
| Solution concept | General equilibrium (closed economy) |
| Solution method | Optimization |
| Anticipation | |
Demographic development has, next to economic growth, strong implications for the anticipated mitigation and adaptation challenges. For example, a larger, poorer population will have more difficulty adapting to the detrimental effects of climate change (O’Neill et al., 2014 MSG-GLB_oneill_new_2014). The primary drivers of future energy demand in MESSAGEix are projections of total population and GDP at purchasing power parity, denoted as GDP (PPP). In addition to total population, the urban/rural split of population is relevant for the MESSAGEix-Access version of the model which distinguishes rural and urban population with different household incomes in developing country regions.
Demographic projections used in MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) at the country level SSP database. Population growth evolves in response to how fertility, mortality, migration, and education of various social strata are assumed to change over time. In SSP2, global population peaks at 9.4 billion people around 2070, and slowly declines thereafter (KC and Lutz, 2015 MSG-GLB_kc_human_2014). However, modest improvements of educational attainment levels result in declines in education-specific fertility rates, leading to incomplete economic convergence across different world regions. This is particularly an issue for Africa. Overall, the population development in SSP2 is designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see KC and Lutz (2015) MSG-GLB_kc_human_2014 for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 MSG-GLB_fricko_marker_2016)