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==Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources==
Information about the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM energy resource endowments can be found in the following subsections:
 
* [[Fossil energy resources - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM|Fossil energy resources - MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM]]
The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in  
* [[Uranium and other fissile resources - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM|Uranium and other fissile resources - MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM]]
fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence useful. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources
* [[Bioenergy - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM|Bioenergy - MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM]]
(Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]) and are aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs. While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas. What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons (<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"/>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/>, middle panel).
* [[Non-biomass renewables - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM|Non-biomass renewables - MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM]]
 
<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"/> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.
 
‘Reserves’ are generally defined as being those quantities for which geological and engineering information indicate with reasonable certainty that they can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. ‘Resources’ are detected quantities that cannot be profitably recovered with current technology, but might be recoverable in the future, as well as those quantities that are geologically possible, but yet to be found. The remainder are ‘Undiscovered resources’ and, by definition, one can only speculate on their existence. Definitions are based on Rogner et al. (2012) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]].
 
<figtable id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff">
{| class="wikitable"
|+<caption>Assumed global fossil fuel reserves and resources in the MESSAGE model. Estimates from the Global Energy Assessment also added for comparison</caption>
! Source
! MESSAGE (Rogner et al., 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]])
! colspan="2" | Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]
|-
|
| Reserves+Resources [ZJ]
| Reserves [ZJ]
| Resources [ZJ]
|-
| Coal
| 259
| 17.3 – 21.0
| 291 – 435
|-
| Conventional Oil
| 9.8
| 4.0 – 7.6
| 4.2 – 6.2
|-
| Unconventional Oil
| 23.0
| 3.8 – 5.6
| 11.3 – 14.9
|-
| Conventional Gas
| 16.8
| 5.0 – 7.1
| 7.2 – 8.9
|-
| Unconventional Gas
| 23.0
| 20.1 – 67.1
| 40.2 – 122
|}
</figtable>
 
 
The following table (<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_ffavail"/>) presents the fossil resource availability in ZJ (2010-2100) for coal, oil and gas, for SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3, respectively.
 
 
<figtable id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_ffavail">
{| class="wikitable"
|+<caption>Fossil resource availability for SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3</caption>
! Type
! SSP1 [ZJ]
! SSP2 [ZJ]
! SSP3 [ZJ]
|-
| Coal
| 93
| 92
| 243
|-
| Oil
| 17
| 40
| 17
|-
| Gas
| 39
| 37
| 24
|}
</figtable>
 
 
Coal is the largest resource among fossil fuels; it accounts for more than 50% of total fossil reserve plus resource estimates even at the higher end of the assumptions, which includes
considerable amounts of unconventional hydrocarbons. Oil is the most vulnerable fossil fuel at less than 10 ZJ of conventional oil and possibly less than 10 ZJ of unconventional oil.
Natural gas is more abundant in both the conventional and unconventional categories.
 
<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/> presents the cumulative global resource supply curves for coal, oil and gas in the IIASA IAM framework. Green shaded resources are technically and economically extractable in all SSPs, purple shaded resources are additionally available in SSP1 and SSP2 and blue shaded resources are additionally available in SSP2. Coloured vertical lines
represent the cumulative use of each resource between 2010 and 2100 in the SSP baselines (see top panel for colour coding), and are thus the result of the combined effect of the assumptions on fossil resource availability and conversion technologies in the SSP baselines.
 
<div style=" overflow: auto;">
<figure id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply">
[[File:GlobalResourceSupplyCurves.png|left|750px|thumb|<caption>Cumulative global resource supply curves for coal (top), oil (middle), and gas (bottom) in the IIASA IAM framework</caption>]]
</figure>
</div>
 
Conventional oil and gas are distributed unevenly throughout the world, with only a few regions dominating the reserves. Nearly half of the reserves of conventional oil is found in
Middle East and North Africa, and close to 40% of conventional gas is found in Russia and the former Soviet Union states. The situation is somewhat different for unconventional oil
of which North and Latin America potentially possess significantly higher global shares. Unconventional gas in turn is distributed quite well throughout  the world, with North America
holding most (roughly 25% of global resources). The distribution of coal reserves shows the highest geographical diversity which in the more fragmented SSP3 world contributes to
increased overall reliance on this resource. Russia and the former Soviet Union states, Pacific OECD, North America, and Centrally Planned Asia and China all possess more than 10 ZJ
of reserves.
 
==Nuclear Resources==
 
Estimates of available uranium resources in the literature vary considerably, which could become relevant if advanced nuclear fuel cycles (e.g., the plutonium cycle including fast breeder
reactors, the thorium cycle) are not available. In MESSAGE advanced nuclear cycles such as the plutonium cycle and nuclear fuel reprocessing are in principle represented, but their
availability varies following the scenario narrative. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_uran"/> below shows the levels of uranium resources assumed available in MESSAGE scenarios, building upon the
Global Energy Assessment scenarios (see Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). These span a considerable range of the estimates in the literature, but at the same time none of them fall at the extreme ends of the spectrum (see Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]], Section 7.5.2 for a more detailed discussion of uranium resources). Nuclear resources and fuel cycle are modeled at the global level.
 
<div style=" overflow: auto;">
<figure id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_uran">
[[File:GlobalResourceSupplyCurves.png|left|600px|thumb|<caption>Global uranium resources in the MESSAGE interpretation of the SSPs compared to seven supply curves from a literature review</caption>]]
</figure>
</div>
 
<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_uran"/> presents the global uranium resources in the MESSAGE interpretation of the SSPs compared to seven supply curves from a literature review (Schneider and Sailor, 2008 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_schneider_long-term_2008]]). Conservative Crustal and Optimistic Crustal refer to simple crustal models of uranium distribution in the crust and the of extraction costs on the concentration. Pure-KCR refers to a fit of a simple crustal model to known conventional resources (KCR) as estimated by the Red Book 2003 (OECD/NEA 2004, [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_oecd_uranium_2004]]). PPM-Cost over the simple crustal models include a relationship between uranium grade and extraction costs. FCCCG(1) and (2) as well as DANESS refer to estimats from more complicated models of the dependency of extraction costs on uranium concentration (and therefore resource grade).

Latest revision as of 14:38, 19 November 2020

Model Documentation - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at.
Solution concept General equilibrium (closed economy)
Solution method Optimization
Anticipation

Information about the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM energy resource endowments can be found in the following subsections:

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