Economic activity - TIAM-UCL
| Corresponding documentation | |
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| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | University College London (UCL), UK, https://www.ucl.ac.uk. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | Linear optimisation |
| Anticipation | Perfect Foresight
(Stochastic and myopic runs are also possible) |
GDP
Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. Figures for future economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.
In detail, this means that per capita income is assumed to converge between different regions, i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions.
The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per person is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.
The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per head in different regions.
India is the poorest region with a GDP per head of 10% of the world average and the USA is the richest region with 608% of the world average in 2005.
In 2100 this picture changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.