Economic activity - IFs

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Alert-warning.png Note: The documentation of IFs is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!

Model Documentation - IFs

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver (Pardee Center), Colorado, USA, https://pardee.du.edu/.
Solution concept
Solution method Dynamic recursive with annual time steps through 2100.
Anticipation Myopic

The economic model (elaborated below in the Macro-economy topic) produces GDP at market exchange rates and at purchasing power parity.  It also produces value added, consumption, and trade in each of six economic sectors: agriculture, primary energy, raw materials, manufactures, services, and information/communications technology.  It further provides a calculation of income distribution in the form of a Gini index, thereby facilitating also its calculation of poverty rates at multiple per-capita income (or household consumption) levels.

Two features of the economic model are especially notable.  First, it is embedded in a full social accounting matrix (SAM) structure, thereby assuring consistency of financial flows among firms, households, and government. Second, the production function, fundamentally important to long-term dynamics, includes endogenous representation of multifactor productivity, driving it by changes in human, social, and physical capital from other models in the IFs system, as well as knowledge advance.  Both the SAM and the production function are therefore pivot points for the interaction of dynamics across the range of models in the integrated IFs system and for policy analysis.

On the forward linkage side, GDP per capita is one of the key distal or deep developmental drivers that affect many other variables across the models of the IFs system. Most often, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) is the variable used, but the model also computes it at market exchange rates.  See documentation of other IFs models for details of its impact.