Fossil energy resources - IMAGE
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Netherlands, https://www.pbl.nl/en. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | Simulation |
| Anticipation | Simulation modelling framework, without foresight. However, a simplified version of the energy/climate part of the model (called FAIR) can be run prior to running the framework to obtain data for climate policy simulations. |
Depletion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and uranium is simulated on the assumption that resources can be represented by a long-term supply cost curve, consisting of different resource categories with increasing cost levels. The model assumes that the cheapest deposits will be exploited first. For each region, there are 12 resource categories for oil, gas and nuclear fuels, and 14 categories for coal. A key input for each of the fossil fuel and uranium supply submodules is fuel demand (fuel used in final energy and conversion processes). Additional input includes conversion losses in refining, liquefaction, conversion, and energy use in the energy system . These submodules indicate how demand can be met by supply in a region and other regions through interregional trade.
<figtable id="tab:IMAGE_1">
| Oil | Natural gas | Underground coal | Surface coal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cum. 1970-2005 production | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Reserves | 4.8 | 4.6 | 23.0 | 2.2 |
| Other conventional resources | 6.6 | 6.9 | 117.7 | 10.0 |
| Unconventional resources (reserves) | 46.2 | 498.6 | 1.3 | 23.0 |
| Total | 65 | 519.2 | 168.6 | 270.0 |
</figtable>
Fossil fuel resources are aggregated to five resource categories for each fuel (see table above). Each category has typical production costs. The resource estimates for oil and natural gas imply that for conventional resources supply is limited to only two to eight times the 1970--2005 production level. Production estimates for unconventional resources are much larger, albeit very speculative. Recently, some of the occurrences of these unconventional resources have become competitive such as shale gas and tar sands. For coal, even current reserves amount to almost ten times the production level of the last three decades. For all fuels, the model assumes that, if prices increase, or if there is further technology development, the energy could be produced in the higher cost resource categories. The values presented in the table above represent medium estimates in the model, which can also use higher or lower estimates in the scenarios. The final production costs in each region are determined by the combined effect of resource depletion and learning-by-doing.