Fossil energy resources - POLES

Model Documentation - POLES
Model scope and methods - POLES Model concept, solver and details - POLES Temporal dimension - POLES Spatial dimension - POLES Policy - POLES Socio-economic drivers - POLES Population - POLES Economic activity - POLES Macro-economy - POLES Production system and representation of economic sectors - POLES Energy - POLES Energy resource endowments - POLES Fossil energy resources - POLES Uranium and other fissile resources - POLES Bioenergy - POLES Non-biomass renewables - POLES Energy conversion - POLES Electricity - POLES Heat - POLES Gaseous fuels - POLES Liquid fuels - POLES Solid fuels - POLES Grid, pipelines and other infrastructure - POLES Energy end-use - POLES Transport - POLES Residential and commercial sectors - POLES Industrial sector - POLES Other end-use - POLES Energy demand - POLES Technological change in energy - POLES Land-use - POLES Emissions - POLES Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options - POLES Climate - POLES Non-climate sustainability dimension - POLES Appendices - POLES Data - POLES References - POLES
Corresponding documentation
AIM-Hub BLUES C3IAM COFFEE-TEA DNE21+ GCAM GRACE IFs IMACLIM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM POLES PROMETHEUS REMIND-MAgPIE
Previous versions
Archive of POLES version ADVANCE
Model information
Model link	http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/poles-jrc-model-documentation-0
Institution	JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept	Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method	SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation	Myopic

The POLES model differentiates various types of fossil fuels:

• oil: conventional, tar, heavy and oil shale / onland & shallow, deepwater, artic;
• gas: conventional, shale gas / onland & shallow, deepwater and artic;
• coal: steam and coke.

The description below gives elements for oil, but they can be extended to gas and coal.

<figure id="fig:POLES_5">

Static aggregated oil production cost curve

</figure>

While this figure gives an aggregated static cost curve, the model actually uses dynamic cost curve per resource type integrating the cost of energy needs for production for each production country/ region. Consequently POLES fossil fuel cost curves thus evolve over time, by region and with the scenario settings (for instance: a CO2 pricing will affect the production cost of tar sands).

The supply module transforms resources into reserves through discovery effort (exploration and drilling) that depends on remaining resources, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuel prices, through elasticities that capture openness to investment and resource management strategies.

Reserves are then turn into production depending on remaining reserves, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuels prices.

<figure id="fig:POLES_6">

Reserves discovery process in POLES (URR: ultimate Recoverable Resources, DISOIL: Discovery of oil)

</figure>

The model has been used in several studies of the role of fossil fuel resources and in low-carbon transition pathwaysbauer2015codowling2012th, particularly in the aspects of energy securityandrews-speed2014comccollum2013foEC-JRC 2013.

Sources of information include: BGRBGR 2015, USGSUSGS 2013, IEAIEA 2015, EnerdataEnerdata 2015, WECWEC 2013a, MIT, industry estimates