Spatial dimension - WITNESS
WITNESS started representing the earth as a complex system, with sectorization and regionalization started in 2024.
The approach selected is to priviledge macro economy vs econometry, that is we study and model economy as a whole rather than just applying statistical methods to economic data. As a result, we have explicit models – expressed as potentially non-linear equations and fitted on available data for the past period - instead of implicitly linear models that could be combined to get polynomial effects but still smooth and continuous, hence difficult to represent any significant rupture.
The main advantage of this approach is that it's easier to modify to include shocks, tipping points effects as you know where to add it in equations. The drawback is that you need to analyse and express model equations instead of "just" build your models in a generic way from data representing different sectors/regions.
On sectorization, WITNESS follow the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) comprehensive classification of economic activities developed by the United Nations.
As of summer '24, mechanisms for sectorization are in place and applied to first sectorization level : agriculture, industry, and services.
For each of them, an econometric subdivision is implemented for several sub-sectors, than will enable to perform back to back models calibration on past data while macro-economic subsectors models will be developed.
On regionalization, the work is ongoing with first set of 5 or 6 macro-regions planned by end'24 .
Note: The documentation of WITNESS is 'in preparation' and is not yet 'published'!| Corresponding documentation | |
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| Previous versions | |
| No previous version available | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | Open-Source for Climate (OS-C), N/A, https://os-climate.org/transition-analysis/., Linux Foundation (LF), N/A, https://www.linuxfoundation.org/. |
| Solution concept | Systems dynamics based approach |
| Solution method | OptimizationSimulation-based optimization |
| Anticipation | |