Transport - C3IAM
| Corresponding documentation | |
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| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology (CEEP-BIT), China, http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/english/. |
| Solution concept | General equilibrium (closed economy) |
| Solution method | Optimization |
| Anticipation | |
C3IAM/NET-Transport model divides the transport sector into three parts, including intercity passenger transport, urban passenger transport and freight transport. Urban passenger transport is divided into public transport (bus and rail transit), taxi, and private vehicles (cars and electric bikes). Intercity passenger transport is divided into private vehicles and four main business intercity passenger transport (road transport, railway transport, aviation and waterway transport). Freight transport is divided into five main types: road transport, railway transport, aviation transport, waterway and pipeline transport. The main fuel includes gasoline, diesel, LNG, electricity, jet fuel, biofuel, fuel oil, hydrogen and so on.
By considering the economic development, the trend of population growth, the development of service industry and the level of transportation infrastructure in the future, combined with the change of travel behavior and the popularization of shared mobility, the multi-factor regression method is used to predict the intercity passenger travel demand [1]. By considering the increase of urbanization and per capita income, the urban passenger travel demand is predicted [2]. By considering the future growth rate of GDP, the change of industrial structure, the development of e-commerce and other factors, the freight transport demand is predicted.
With the goal of minimizing the annualized cost during the planning period, the model can directly describe the competition and substitution process of different technologies in the transport sector and describe the evolution of the transport structure. The model can effectively simulate the possible technological progress, efficiency improvement, cost reduction and technological breakthrough in the development of the medium and long term transport sector. In combination with current transport policies and future emission-reduction targets in the transportation sector, the energy consumption and CO2 emission-reduction potential under different scenarios will be analyzed. A detailed and operable development path for China’s transport sector can then be provided.