Energy resource endowments - POLES: Difference between revisions

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== Fossil fuel resources ==


The POLES model differentiates various types of fossil fuels:
The model distinguishes different geographical representations according to the resource considered.


* oil: conventional, tar, heavy and oil shale / onland & shallow, deepwater, artic;
Supply is linked to demand regions via trade:
* gas: conventional, shale gas / onland & shallow, deepwater and artic;
* Oil: producers all export to single global market "pool"
* coal: steam and coke.
* Gas: large producers export towards 14 importing regions; small producers only supply domestic demand
 
* Coal: large producers export towards 14 importing regions; small producers only supply domestic demand
The description below gives elements for oil, but they can be extended to gas and coal.
* Solid biomass: producers supply domestic demand or export towards a global market depending on the relative cost of production
 
* Liquid biofuels: similar to solid biomass
[[Image:POLESIMPORT/attachments/34379359/36405505.png|36405505.png]]
* Uranium: single global supply cost curve
''Figure 1'''. Static aggregated oil production cost curve<br />
* Primary electricity (hydro, solar, wind): country-specific renewables potentials for power generation for domestic electricity demand
 
While Figure 1 gives an aggregated static cost curve, the model actually uses ''dynamic'' cost curve per resource type integrating the cost of energy needs for production for each production country/ region. Consequently POLES fossil fuel cost curves thus evolve over time, by region and with the scenario settings (for instance: a CO2 pricing will affect the production cost of tar sands, ..).
 
The supply module transforms resources into reserves through discovery effort (exploration and drilling) that depends on remaining resources, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuel prices, through elasticities that capture openness to investment and resource management strategies.
 
Reserves are then turn into production depending on remaining reserves, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuels prices.
 
[[Image:POLESIMPORT/attachments/34379359/36405504.png|36405504.png]]
'''Figure 2''': Reserves discovery process in POLES (URR: ultimate Recoverable Resources, DISOIL: Discovery of oil)
 
Sources of information include: BGR, USGS, IEA, MIT, industry estimates
 
== Biomass resources ==
 
Primary biomass resources for energy uses are classified in 3 categories for all POLES 57 countries / regions: energy crops, short rotation crops (cellulosic) and forest residues (cellulosic). Energy crops are dedicated to 1st generation biofuels, the 2 other categories are used in all other energy uses (a further split of biomass feedstocks has been implemented for Europe using information from the model GREEN-X). POLES uses by default a simplified modeling of land use to estimate the potential of these resources: land available, yields, share of harvest/land that can be allocated to energy uses.POLES also uses in a standard way exogenous estimates of potentials: for instance a soft linkage with the model GLOBIOM/G4M has been implemented that goves potential estimates and cost curves for all World regions (with th emodel GREEN-X at EU level). Biomass supply cost curves are attached to the various biomass types and come from GREEN-X, GLOBIOM and other sources.
 
[[Image:POLESIMPORT/attachments/34379359/36405536.png|36405536.png]]
''' Figure 3'''. Biomass resource use in POLES
 
== Uranium resources==
Uranium resources used in LWRs are represented at World level only (sources: IAEA / NEA Red Book, CEA estimates, ..). An uranium Price is derived from a global supply cost curve. LWR capacity development is also constrained by the amount of remaining resources. Fast breeders development is contrained by the production of waste from LWR.
 
Sources of information include: IAEA/NEA Red Book, estimates from CNRS LPSC, ..
 
== Hydro resources ==
 
Hydro resources are defined for all 57 POLES countries / regions. They constraint the development of hydro power (which depends on identified projects and average power production costs).
 
Sources of information include: WEC, IEA.
 
== Solar resources ==
 
Solar resources are defined as the maximum amount of solar energy that can harvested for the energy system. Solar energy in urban areas depends on the rooftop surface, solar energy in non-urban areas depends on land-use and distance to consuming centres. The resource is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering netwrok constraints. The model uses mostly inside calculation considering solar irradiation, land use, population density and urban areas. In the case of the EU it can use information from the model GREEN-X.
 
== Wind resources ==
 
The model distinguishes between total resource and technical potential that is considered as harvestable, depending on distance to consuming centres and depths (for offshore resource). Total resources come from NREL estimates, technical potential can be internally calculated or also derived from NREL estimates. This potential is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering network constraints. In the case of the EU the model can use information from the model GREEN-X.

Latest revision as of 15:34, 22 December 2016

Model Documentation - POLES

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation Myopic

The model distinguishes different geographical representations according to the resource considered.

Supply is linked to demand regions via trade:

  • Oil: producers all export to single global market "pool"
  • Gas: large producers export towards 14 importing regions; small producers only supply domestic demand
  • Coal: large producers export towards 14 importing regions; small producers only supply domestic demand
  • Solid biomass: producers supply domestic demand or export towards a global market depending on the relative cost of production
  • Liquid biofuels: similar to solid biomass
  • Uranium: single global supply cost curve
  • Primary electricity (hydro, solar, wind): country-specific renewables potentials for power generation for domestic electricity demand
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