Energy resource endowments - POLES: Difference between revisions
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== Fossil fuel resources == | == Fossil fuel resources == | ||
The POLES model differentiates various types of fossil fuels: | The POLES model differentiates various types of fossil fuels: | ||
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The description below gives elements for oil, but they can be extended to gas and coal. | The description below gives elements for oil, but they can be extended to gas and coal. | ||
[[File:36405505.png | [[File:36405505.png|none|600px|thumb|<caption>Static aggregated oil production cost curve</caption>]] | ||
While | While this figure gives an aggregated static cost curve, the model actually uses ''dynamic'' cost curve per resource type integrating the cost of energy needs for production for each production country/ region. Consequently POLES fossil fuel cost curves thus evolve over time, by region and with the scenario settings (for instance: a CO2 pricing will affect the production cost of tar sands, ..). | ||
The supply module transforms resources into reserves through discovery effort (exploration and drilling) that depends on remaining resources, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuel prices, through elasticities that capture openness to investment and resource management strategies. | The supply module transforms resources into reserves through discovery effort (exploration and drilling) that depends on remaining resources, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuel prices, through elasticities that capture openness to investment and resource management strategies. | ||
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Reserves are then turn into production depending on remaining reserves, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuels prices. | Reserves are then turn into production depending on remaining reserves, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuels prices. | ||
[[File:36405504.png | [[File:36405504.png|none|600px|thumb|<caption>Reserves discovery process in POLES (URR: ultimate Recoverable Resources, DISOIL: Discovery of oil)</caption>]] | ||
Sources of information include: BGR, USGS, IEA, MIT, industry estimates | Sources of information include: BGR, USGS, IEA, MIT, industry estimates | ||
== Biomass resources == | == Biomass resources == | ||
Primary biomass resources for energy uses are classified in 3 categories for all POLES 57 countries / regions: energy crops, short rotation crops (cellulosic) and forest residues (cellulosic). Energy crops are dedicated to 1st generation biofuels, the 2 other categories are used in all other energy uses (a further split of biomass feedstocks has been implemented for Europe using information from the model GREEN-X). POLES uses by default a simplified modeling of land use to estimate the potential of these resources: land available, yields, share of harvest/land that can be allocated to energy uses.POLES also uses in a standard way exogenous estimates of potentials: for instance a soft linkage with the model GLOBIOM/G4M has been implemented that goves potential estimates and cost curves for all World regions (with th emodel GREEN-X at EU level). Biomass supply cost curves are attached to the various biomass types and come from GREEN-X, GLOBIOM and other sources. | Primary biomass resources for energy uses are classified in 3 categories for all POLES 57 countries / regions: energy crops, short rotation crops (cellulosic) and forest residues (cellulosic). Energy crops are dedicated to 1st generation biofuels, the 2 other categories are used in all other energy uses (a further split of biomass feedstocks has been implemented for Europe using information from the model GREEN-X). POLES uses by default a simplified modeling of land use to estimate the potential of these resources: land available, yields, share of harvest/land that can be allocated to energy uses.POLES also uses in a standard way exogenous estimates of potentials: for instance a soft linkage with the model GLOBIOM/G4M has been implemented that goves potential estimates and cost curves for all World regions (with th emodel GREEN-X at EU level). Biomass supply cost curves are attached to the various biomass types and come from GREEN-X, GLOBIOM and other sources. | ||
[[File:36405536.png | [[File:36405536.png|none|600px|thumb|<caption>Biomass resource use in POLES</caption>]] | ||
== Uranium resources== | == Uranium resources== | ||
Uranium resources used in LWRs are represented at World level only (sources: IAEA / NEA Red Book, CEA estimates, ..). An | |||
Uranium resources used in LWRs are represented at World level only (sources: IAEA / NEA Red Book, CEA estimates, ..). An Uranium price is derived from a global supply cost curve. LWR capacity development is also constrained by the amount of remaining resources. Fast breeders development is contrained by the production of waste from LWR. | |||
Sources of information include: IAEA/NEA Red Book, estimates from CNRS LPSC, .. | Sources of information include: IAEA/NEA Red Book, estimates from CNRS LPSC, .. | ||
== Hydro resources == | == Hydro resources == | ||
Hydro resources are defined for all 57 POLES countries / regions. They constraint the development of hydro power (which depends on identified projects and average power production costs). | Hydro resources are defined for all 57 POLES countries / regions. They constraint the development of hydro power (which depends on identified projects and average power production costs). | ||
Sources of information include: WEC, IEA. | Sources of information include: WEC, IEA. | ||
== Solar resources == | == Solar resources == | ||
Solar resources are defined as the maximum amount of solar energy that can harvested for the energy system. Solar energy in urban areas depends on the rooftop surface, solar energy in non-urban areas depends on land-use and distance to consuming centres. The resource is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering netwrok constraints. The model uses mostly inside calculation considering solar irradiation, land use, population density and urban areas. In the case of the EU it can use information from the model GREEN-X. | Solar resources are defined as the maximum amount of solar energy that can harvested for the energy system. Solar energy in urban areas depends on the rooftop surface, solar energy in non-urban areas depends on land-use and distance to consuming centres. The resource is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering netwrok constraints. The model uses mostly inside calculation considering solar irradiation, land use, population density and urban areas. In the case of the EU it can use information from the model GREEN-X. | ||
== Wind resources == | == Wind resources == | ||
The model distinguishes between total resource and technical potential that is considered as harvestable, depending on distance to consuming centres and depths (for offshore resource). Total resources come from NREL estimates, technical potential can be internally calculated or also derived from NREL estimates. This potential is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering network constraints. In the case of the EU the model can use information from the model GREEN-X. | The model distinguishes between total resource and technical potential that is considered as harvestable, depending on distance to consuming centres and depths (for offshore resource). Total resources come from NREL estimates, technical potential can be internally calculated or also derived from NREL estimates. This potential is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering network constraints. In the case of the EU the model can use information from the model GREEN-X. | ||
Revision as of 15:08, 20 October 2016
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | SimulationRecursive simulation |
| Anticipation | Myopic |
Fossil fuel resources
The POLES model differentiates various types of fossil fuels:
- oil: conventional, tar, heavy and oil shale / onland & shallow, deepwater, artic;
- gas: conventional, shale gas / onland & shallow, deepwater and artic;
- coal: steam and coke.
The description below gives elements for oil, but they can be extended to gas and coal.
While this figure gives an aggregated static cost curve, the model actually uses dynamic cost curve per resource type integrating the cost of energy needs for production for each production country/ region. Consequently POLES fossil fuel cost curves thus evolve over time, by region and with the scenario settings (for instance: a CO2 pricing will affect the production cost of tar sands, ..).
The supply module transforms resources into reserves through discovery effort (exploration and drilling) that depends on remaining resources, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuel prices, through elasticities that capture openness to investment and resource management strategies.
Reserves are then turn into production depending on remaining reserves, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuels prices.
Sources of information include: BGR, USGS, IEA, MIT, industry estimates
Biomass resources
Primary biomass resources for energy uses are classified in 3 categories for all POLES 57 countries / regions: energy crops, short rotation crops (cellulosic) and forest residues (cellulosic). Energy crops are dedicated to 1st generation biofuels, the 2 other categories are used in all other energy uses (a further split of biomass feedstocks has been implemented for Europe using information from the model GREEN-X). POLES uses by default a simplified modeling of land use to estimate the potential of these resources: land available, yields, share of harvest/land that can be allocated to energy uses.POLES also uses in a standard way exogenous estimates of potentials: for instance a soft linkage with the model GLOBIOM/G4M has been implemented that goves potential estimates and cost curves for all World regions (with th emodel GREEN-X at EU level). Biomass supply cost curves are attached to the various biomass types and come from GREEN-X, GLOBIOM and other sources.
Uranium resources
Uranium resources used in LWRs are represented at World level only (sources: IAEA / NEA Red Book, CEA estimates, ..). An Uranium price is derived from a global supply cost curve. LWR capacity development is also constrained by the amount of remaining resources. Fast breeders development is contrained by the production of waste from LWR.
Sources of information include: IAEA/NEA Red Book, estimates from CNRS LPSC, ..
Hydro resources
Hydro resources are defined for all 57 POLES countries / regions. They constraint the development of hydro power (which depends on identified projects and average power production costs).
Sources of information include: WEC, IEA.
Solar resources
Solar resources are defined as the maximum amount of solar energy that can harvested for the energy system. Solar energy in urban areas depends on the rooftop surface, solar energy in non-urban areas depends on land-use and distance to consuming centres. The resource is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering netwrok constraints. The model uses mostly inside calculation considering solar irradiation, land use, population density and urban areas. In the case of the EU it can use information from the model GREEN-X.
Wind resources
The model distinguishes between total resource and technical potential that is considered as harvestable, depending on distance to consuming centres and depths (for offshore resource). Total resources come from NREL estimates, technical potential can be internally calculated or also derived from NREL estimates. This potential is then used in the energy system depending on the economic conditions, considering network constraints. In the case of the EU the model can use information from the model GREEN-X.