Fossil energy resources - PROMETHEUS

The PROMETHEUS model differentiates various types of fossil fuels:

• oil: conventional, tar, heavy and oil shale, deepwater;
• gas: conventional, shale gas, tight gas, coalbed methane;
• coal: one generic type is identified.

Note: The documentation of PROMETHEUS is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!

Model Documentation - PROMETHEUS
Model scope and methods - PROMETHEUS Model concept, solver and details - PROMETHEUS Temporal dimension - PROMETHEUS Spatial dimension - PROMETHEUS Policy - PROMETHEUS Socio-economic drivers - PROMETHEUS Population - PROMETHEUS Economic activity - PROMETHEUS Energy - PROMETHEUS Energy resource endowments - PROMETHEUS Fossil energy resources - PROMETHEUS Uranium and other fissile resources - PROMETHEUS Bioenergy - PROMETHEUS Non-biomass renewables - PROMETHEUS Energy conversion - PROMETHEUS Electricity - PROMETHEUS Heat - PROMETHEUS Gaseous fuels - PROMETHEUS Liquid fuels - PROMETHEUS Solid fuels - PROMETHEUS Grid, pipelines and other infrastructure - PROMETHEUS Energy end-use - PROMETHEUS Transport - PROMETHEUS Residential and commercial sectors - PROMETHEUS Industrial sector - PROMETHEUS Other end-use - PROMETHEUS Energy demand - PROMETHEUS Technological change in energy - PROMETHEUS Land-use - PROMETHEUS Agriculture - PROMETHEUS Forestry - PROMETHEUS Land-use change - PROMETHEUS Bioenergy land-use - PROMETHEUS Other land-use - PROMETHEUS Agricultural demand - PROMETHEUS Technological change in land-use - PROMETHEUS Emissions - PROMETHEUS GHGs - PROMETHEUS Pollutants and non-GHG forcing agents - PROMETHEUS Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options - PROMETHEUS Climate - PROMETHEUS Modelling of climate indicators - PROMETHEUS Climate damages, temperature changes - PROMETHEUS Non-climate sustainability dimension - PROMETHEUS Air pollution and health - PROMETHEUS Water - PROMETHEUS Other materials - PROMETHEUS Other sustainability dimensions - PROMETHEUS Appendices - PROMETHEUS Mathematical model description - PROMETHEUS Data - PROMETHEUS References - PROMETHEUS
Corresponding documentation
AIM-Hub BLUES C3IAM COFFEE-TEA DNE21+ GCAM GRACE IFs IMACLIM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM POLES PROMETHEUS REMIND-MAgPIE
Previous versions
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Model information
Model link	https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools/prometheus/
Institution	E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools.
Solution concept	Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method	Simulation
Anticipation	Energy system simulation.Foresight is included only is some sub-modules (i.e. electricity generation)

the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of oil and gas reserves is one of the

most crucial drivers of the world energy system. Conventional and nonconventional oil are distinguished in PROMETHEUS analysis. The former are

differentiated between Gulf and non-Gulf oil, while the latter are distinguished

between Venezuela’s extra heavy oil, Canada’s tar sands and light tight oil.

The uncertainty that surrounds the amount of oil and natural gas that is yet to

be discovered has been incorporated into PROMETHEUS. Using studies

conducted by USGS, stochastic analysis has been carried out in order to obtain

joint distributions for the yet to be discovered oil and gas conventional

resources (endowments) at the starting year of the simulation procedure.

The rate of discovery as well as the rate of recovery of petroleum are

endogenous in the model, they are both positively correlated with the

international oil price and are subject to their own specific uncertainties. Gross

additions to reserves of conventional oil are a function of the yet to be

discovered oil in each region, the international oil price and world oil

production, while the recovery rates of unconventional oil sources are pricedependent and act as a “backstop” preventing the persistence of very high oil

prices.

Gross additions to conventional gas reserves are a function of the yet to be

discovered natural gas and the gross additions to oil reserves, as the

exploration for conventional oil increases the likelihood of gas discoveries. In

addition to conventional gas, unconventional gas (shale, tight and coal bed

methane) is considered in the PROMETHEUS model, the resource base of

which and the uncertainty surrounding it, is derived from a variety of

assessments.

Oil and gas reserves are supplemented by reserve growth arising from known

deposits following assessments by USGS. Apart from statistical dependence

arising from geological factors, exploration and extraction technologies,

hydrocarbon reserves are also linked through their dependence on the

relevant prices which are incorporated in the equations.

Oil production in the Gulf is influenced by the (lagged) reserves to production

ratio in the Middle East and the world oil demand, while oil production

capacity in the Middle East is driven by petroleum demand but it is also subject

to random disruptions, whose variance is determined using historical data.

Conventional oil production in the Rest of the world is driven by the world

demand, the international oil price and reserves of this region.