Population - AIM-Hub
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, https://www.nies.go.jp/index-e.html., Kyoto-University (Kyoto-University), Japan, https://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en. |
| Solution concept | General equilibrium (closed economy) |
| Solution method | Simulation |
| Anticipation | |
Demography
Future demographic change is one of the key drivers to change the demand for goods in the future, including energy and food. The production side is also affected by demographic changes through labor participation. Population and labor forces are exogenous parameters in AIM/CGE. Currently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) population data made available by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is used as the reference demographic assumption.
Macro-economy
The future macro-economic assumption also causes changes in the supply and demand of goods. The macroeconomic assumption is also an exogenous assumption. Usually, the change in GDP is used for the macroeconomic assumption for future scenario simulation. However, the actual outcome from the model is not exactly the same as the assumptions. Therefore, the GDP assumption is used to calculate the total factor productivity (TFP), and this is a totally exogenous parameter of the model.