Population - POLES
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | SimulationRecursive simulation |
| Anticipation | Myopic |
Population
Population is an exogenous driver in POLES. The standard source used is the UN World Population Prospects (latest: 2012 revision).
GDP
GDP per capita is also exogenous and is derived from various international sources. Latest work used GDP assumptions from:
- latest IMF forecasts (for the short run)
- MIT and CEPII forecasts (for the longer run)
Consistency with population is checked.
An on-going work will allow to connect POLES to the marco-econometric model MAGE (CEPII institute / JRC) through an energy factor in the production function that will link dyamically GDP, energy intensity and energy prices.
All other economic activities variables (value added, mobility, surfacces, ...) are endogenously calculated in POLES.