Energy demand - PROMETHEUS
In PROMETHEUS energy demand is modelled in terms of useful energy services (such as space and water heating, electric appliances, mobility, industrial steam) and in terms of final energy commodities, ensuring energy balance between useful and final energies at all times. The model follows an econometric top-down approach to estimate overall energy demand by sector. Demand for energy services is assumed to be a function of macroeconomic drivers (GDP, population, household income, industrial activity) and the average costs of meeting energy services based on econometrically estimated elasticities.
Final energy demand in PROMETHEUS comes from three main sectors: industry, domestic (which includes households, services and agriculture) and transport (which includes both various transport models of both freight and passenger transport). Within these broad categories the model identifies subsectors: in industry heat, electricity and non-energy uses of fuels; in the domestic sector demand that is subject to fuel substitution (space and water heating, cooking) and specific electricity demand; in the transport sector road (passenger and freight), air (aviation) and marine bunkers. For each energy demand sector a representative decision making agent is assumed to operate.
In PROMETHEUS useful energy demand (services from energy such as temperature in a house, lighting, industrial production, passenger-km etc.) is determined at a level of a sector/subsector. In the typical useful energy demand equation, the main explanatory variables are activity and income indicators and energy costs.
Energy efficiency investment can be triggered by increased energy prices as well as by dedicated policy measures and investments, i.e. investments in retrofitting and insulation improvement in buildings. Energy efficiency investments reduce demand for energy services addressed to final energy products but the costs are included in the accounting for energy service costs. The choice of energy commodities (gas, electricity, oil products, coal, biomass and other RES) to satisfy demand for energy services depends on the stock of energy conversion equipment which evolves over time driven by investment decisions in each demand sector. The latter are driven by technology progress and relative costs of competing options.
Emission constraints, energy efficiency goals, and regulations/standards are represented in PROMETHEUS and can influence the choice of technology for investment, the choice of final energy products and the overall energy efficiency investment. The accounting of costs (CAPEX, OPEX), and the performances in terms of emissions, renewables and energy efficiency are reported for every energy demand sector. The PROMETHEUS model also considers saturation dynamics in energy consumption that depend on the income of households and the saturation factor exhibits a sigmoid curve which indicates income elasticity of energy above one if useful energy at low levels (developing regions) and elasticity values lower than one (and decreasing) when income and useful energy levels are high (developed regions).
Activity indicators are derived from the demographic and economic activity module of PROMETHEUS which estimates various economic activity indicators (including industrial value added, household disposable income, passenger-km, tonne-km, building floor space, car ownerhip rates) based on the evolution of GDP in each country. The demographic module is relatively simple and it is calibrated to reproduce the latest UN medium fertility variant scenario.
Useful energy requirements at the level of sectors and sub-sectors (e.g. space heating, water heating, specific electricity uses, industrial steam, mobility etc.) have to be met by consumption of final energy carriers. The representative agent in each sector or subsector is formulated to choose among fuels, technologies and energy savings. Final energy demand is met by a number of options characterised by the fuel used and specific technologies. Notable among the latter are: for space heating fossil fuel boilers, electrical options (resistance and heat pumps) and hydrogen fuel cells; for road transport conventional vehicles (using gasoline, diesel, biofuels or hydrogen), hybrids (both stand-alone and plug-in), electric vehicles and fuel-cell powered (with or without reformer).
Energy demand from the various end-uses (industry, buildings, transport) is aggregated into totals that have to be supplied by the energy transformation module, for each energy carrier, including: oil products, natural gas, coal, biofuels (traditional and advanced biofuels), electricity, heat and hydrogen. Total demand of energy depends on the relevant activity variable (industrial production, household income, mobility) and energy costs by sector. Competition across fuels takes place based on the total costs for the user (also considering the lifetime of existing equipment) and is also influenced by technological trends and by policy measures (e.g. energy effiiency standards, carbon pricing etc).
Note: The documentation of PROMETHEUS is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| No previous version available | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | Simulation |
| Anticipation | Energy system simulation.Foresight is included only is some sub-modules (i.e. electricity generation) |